While the most anticipated matchup of Sunday night’s showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Tennessee Titans might center around Mike Pettine’s defense against All-Pro running back Derrick Henry, another pivotal chess match looms in the shadows, and it’s one where the Packers should enjoy a huge advantage.
Two important situations when the Packers are on offense could play just as big a role in deciding Sunday night’s winner as Henry against Green Bay’s run defense.
The importance of the matchup is jarring due to the potential for supremacy by the Packers.
The Titans offense has been great on both third down and in the red zone, ranking in the top 10 in each category, but it’s a much different story for Mike Vrabel’s defense. In fact, there might not be a worse situational defense in football this season.
The Titans defense ranks dead last in third-down conversion percentage (52.6) and 30th in red zone touchdown percentage (70.9), a potentially disastrous combination of situational incompetence when facing Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
Matt LaFleur’s team might have the best situational offense in football. The Packers rank third in the NFL on third downs (49.1) and first in the red zone (78.4).
Despite some struggles finishing the game last Saturday night against the Carolina Panthers, the Packers have been dominant and consistent on third down.
Rodgers leads the NFL in passing yards on third down, and he’s second in passing touchdowns and yards per attempt and third in passer rating. Receiver Davante Adams is first in receiving yards and second in first down catches on third down. Receivers Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling and tight end Robert Tonyan have turned 31 catches on third down into 29 first downs. Rodgers has even scrambled for eight first downs on third down.
The Titans have allowed three times as many touchdown passes on third down (nine) as they have sacks on third down (three). Five different quarterbacks have posted a passer rating of 100.0 on third down against the Titans, and they’ve been terrible at defending third-and-short. Of the 92 completions against the Titans on third down, 74 have gained first downs. And running the ball on third down has converted 28 times on 42 attempts.
The red zone – or gold zone, as the Packers call it – has been a magical place for the green and gold. The Packers are approaching a touchdown rate of 80 percent when getting inside the 20-yard line, largely due to Rodgers. He leads the NFL with 29 red-zone touchdown passes, and he’s scrambled in three other scores. Overall, the two-time MVP has accounted for 32 of the Packers’ 40 red-zone touchdowns.
The Titans have allowed 39 red-zone touchdowns on defense, highlighting the group’s bend but also break style.
It’s probably not a stretch to say third down and the red zone will decide the game on Sunday night. Or at least go a long way in determining a winner. Both offenses are dominant in situational football, but only one defense is in the running for the worst in the NFL on third down and in the red zone.
Henry might be productive for the Titans, but the Packers can do far more damage if Rodgers and the offense take advantage of the showdown’s biggest mismatch.
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