Canelo Alvarez seems to have a plan in place.
The Mexican star, coming off his victory over Callum Smith to win two 168-pound titles Saturday, will likely defend his WBC title against mandatory challenger Avni Yildirim in February and then face either Caleb Plant or Billy Joe Saunders in a unification bout in May.
All that makes sense. He has to defend against Yildirim or risk losing his belt. And every fighter wants to unify titles, which is a sign of dominance.
The problem is that none of those three fighters has much more of a chance of beating Alvarez than Smith did, which isn’t ideal.
That’s not a knock on Plant or Saunders, who are good fighters and legitimate opponents for Alvarez. They just aren’t the best-possible foes for the fighter many believe is No. 1 pound for pound in the world. Yildirim? Forget it.
Who are the best-possible opponents?
Here are five who could give the Mexican star a stiffer challenge than Smith did and possibly take him down, in order of their chances of winning. We also rate those chances on a scale of 1-10.
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ARTUR BETERBIEV
Record: 15-0 (15 KOs)
Weight class: light heavyweight
Alvarez speaks boldly about taking risks and has done so in the past. OK, Saul, here’s a good one for you.
First of all, Alvarez can’t and wouldn’t say, “Well, I’m a super middleweight and he’s a light heavyweight.” He has already faced a good 175-pounder, Sergey Kovalev. Thus, it’s perfectly legitimate to suggest he move up a weight class for the right challenge even if that’s not his immediate plan.
Beterbiev, who holds two 175-pound titles, could be Alvarez’s worst nightmare. The 35-year-old Russian is a former Olympian with sound fundamentals and immense power, as 15 knockouts in 15 professional fights indicates.
Alvarez, who has honed his skills since he turned pro at 15, probably is a better boxer than Beterbiev and has much more experience at an elite level. However, Beterbiev is a better boxer than Smith and 10 times stronger.
Alvarez would not be able to walk through Beterbiev’s punches like he did against Smith. And it would more difficult for him to hurt Beterbiev, who is accustomed to taking punches from bigger opponents.
One more thing: Alvarez struggled to some degree with Kovalev before he was able to take him out in Round 11. Kovalev is an underrated, crafty boxer. Still, Alvarez showed some vulnerabilities in that fight.
Beterbiev’s chances of beating Alvarez: 7.
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DMITRY BIVOL
Record: 17-0 (11 KOs)
Weight class: light heavyweight
Part of Smith’s problem is that he is a basic boxer. The Liverpudlian has solid fundamentals, a solid jab and solid power. Bivol is a completely different animal.
The 30-year-old Russian, another former amateur star, is a skilled technician but also quick, athletic and far more dynamic than Smith. And while he isn’t a knockout artist like Beterbiev, he has heavy hands.
Again, we have to give Alvarez an edge in ability and experience. However, Bivol has demonstrated repeatedly that he’s an unusually good boxer.
Consider his last five fights, against Sullivan Barrera (TKO 12), Isaac Chilemba (UD), Jean Pascal (UD), Joe Smith Jr. (UD) and Lenin Castillo (UD). In those fights, against good boxers, he lost only 18 of 177 rounds scored (36 rounds in each of the four fights that went the distance, 33 in the fifth). That means none of those opponents gave him a serious challenge.
He’s that good.
Now it’s important to point out that Bivol’s last four opponents went the distance with him. Does that mean that Alvarez could walk through his punches? Absolutely not. He has more than enough power to keep light heavyweights honest. Alvarez, the naturally smaller man, would be no different.
This matchup could actually be more difficult than Beterbiev for Alvarez because of Bivol’s boxing ability.
Bivol’s chances of beating Alvarez: 6.
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JERMALL CHARLO
Record: 31-0 (22 KOs)
Weight class: Middleweight
The opponent who can give Alvarez the most trouble is one who can box, has power and has experience at an elite level. Charlo checks all those boxes.
The slightly older of the Charlo twins is a gifted athlete who can outbox you (Austin Trout and Sergiy Derevyanchenko) and knock you out (Julian Williams and Dennis Hogan). He looked better against Derevyanchenko than Gennadiy Golovkin did, which removed any doubt about the former 154-pound titleholder’s effectiveness at 160.
How does he stack up against Alvarez?
Charlo might be quicker and a better athlete but he certainly isn’t the better boxer and, as the smaller man, he isn’t the puncher Alvarez is. Charlo has a better KO percentage – 71% to 63% — but Alvarez has faced much better opposition.
That disparity in the level of opponents doesn’t work in Charlo’s favor. The victories over Williams and Derevyanchenko were tremendous but Alvarez many more equally as impressive wins.
Still, Charlo has the all-around ability to compete with anyone – including Alvarez – if he puts it all together. If nothing else, this would be a fascinating matchup.
Charlo’s chances of beating Alvarez: 5.
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DEMETRIUS ANDRADE
Record: 29-0 (18 KOs)
Weight class: Middleweight
Andrade is a wild card.
The product of Providence, R.I., seems to be an excellent boxer who is also unusually quick and athletic, strengths that could give Alvarez problems. However, as an unattractive opponent, he hasn’t had the chance to prove how good he is.
Why is he unattractive? Too much risk for too little gain. He’s both good and awkward, which is never ideal for any opponent. Plus, he’s a southpaw. That’s a dangerous trifecta even for a fighter as good as Alvarez.
On top of that, Andrade doesn’t have the following of some of Alvarez’s other potential opponents. That means he isn’t going to generate the buzz – and, in turn, the money – that the others might.
So why take the chance?
However, strictly from a boxing standpoint, Andrade appears to be a threat to Alvarez. He might have the ability to stick and move and frustrate Alvarez, who has evolved into a fine technician but isn’t tremendously quick. Saunders also is a good boxer but isn’t as quick as Andrade and has little power.
I doubt that Andrade has the power to hurt Alvarez – he generally doesn’t sit down on his punches because he’s always moving – but he probably has enough pop to prevent the kind of beat down we saw last Saturday.
Would Alvarez eventually catch up to Andrade and stop him? Maybe … and maybe not.
One more thing: Andrade is naturally a little smaller than Alvarez, who seems to have matured into a full-fledged 168-pounder. That wouldn’t help Andrade’s cause but the size difference probably wouldn’t preclude the possibility of an upset.
Andrade’s chances of beating Alvarez: 4.
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DAVID BENAVIDEZ
Record: 23-0, 20 KOs
Weight class: super middleweight
It might be a bit too early for Benavidez, who, at 24, probably hasn’t reached his peak as a fighter even though he won his first title at 20. The tools are there, though. He’s strapping, like Smith, but he’s probably a better boxer and has the punching power that the Englishman lacks.
Benavidez’s knockout percentage – 87% — is legit. He can crack to the head and body, as even his best opponents discovered the hard way. He can hurt anyone with the right punch. And he has an imposing demeanor, as if he says with his actions, “I’m going to impose my will on you and there’s nothing you can do about it.”
Alvarez isn’t likely to be intimidated by anyone but Benavidez’s confidence and swagger are assets in the ring. Golovkin has similar qualities. And look what he was able to accomplish against Alvarez.
Benavidez’s downfall might be his boxing ability, which is solid but still in development. For example, he can be hit, as we saw in his knockout victory over Anthony Dirrell. And we know what happens when Alvarez touches his opponents.
Plant is more evolved as a boxer than Benavidez is, which would give him a chance against Alvarez. The Tennessean doesn’t have the physical traits of Benavidez, which might be imperative against Alvarez if you’re not a truly special boxer.
Let’s hope Alvarez vs. Benavidez happens, even if it’s a few years from now.
Benavidez’s chances of beating Alvarez: 3.
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