In a bantamweight bout on the main card, Jose Aldo and Marlon Vera meet at UFC Vegas 17 at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The event is also known as UFC Fight Night 183. The prelims kick off at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.
Aldo (28-7) heads into this one on a three-bout losing skid, falling to belt holder Petr Yan last time out on the UFC 251 card when he was knocked out in the fifth round. Before that, he was the victim of a split-decision loss to Marlon Moraes, who is also on this card, and he fell at UFC 237 by unanimous decision against Alexander Volkanovski.
His last victory was nearly two calendar years ago on Feb. 2, 2019, as he knocked out Renato Moicano. He hopes it’s Groundhog Day here, and he gets the stoppage against his counterpart in this one.
Vera (16-6-1) dropped Sean O’Malley by KO/TKO in the first round on Aug. 15, 2020, at UFC 252, rebounding from a disappointing unanimous-decision setback to Song Yadong in Jacksonville on the Overeem-Harris card.
Lately, the Ecuadorian hasn’t been interested in going long into the night, as six of his past seven fights have ended via stoppage, with four wins by way of KO/TKO, and two submission wins. The only time he lost during the seven-bout span was his decision to Song.
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Jose Aldo vs. Marlon Vera: Betting odds, predictions and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:50 a.m. ET.
ALDO (-150) is a powerhouse who has fought for titles, and he is just too good to lose three in a row, let alone four. This will be the fight where he finally gets back on track and points in the right direction again.
It’s a little surprising that with both of these fighters seeing so many stoppages in recent outings, NO (+145) ON ‘WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?’ is at plus-money. Take advantage. I also like Aldo on the 7-way line, so take ALDO BY KO/TKO OR DQ (+425) for a potentially big payoff.
You can include the submission on the 5-way line for lesser money back, but it’s a waste since Aldo hasn’t had a submission result since a loss on Nov. 26, 2005, and he hasn’t won by submission since getting an arm triangle since March 18, 2005, at Shooto: Brazil 7 against Luiz de Paula. In addition, UNDER 2.5 ROUNDS (+155) is a good play, too.
If you’re uncertain on a specific winner, but want action in the fight, take KO/TKO/DQ (+200) for the fight finish, and if the fight doesn’t go the distance or end via submission, you win, regardless of the victor.
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