One week you’re the flyswatter, the next you’re the fly.
That’s the up-and-down nature of sports betting, particularly on the NFL, and that very scenario has played out the last two weeks here in underdog corner. Following a 3-0 Week 13 where each of our three underdog selections won outright, we went 1-2 last week, dropping our season record to 20-22.
We did, though, avoid a total 0-fer with the Detroit Lions managing to cover by a half-point in a 31-24 home loss to the Green Bay Packers. Our wagers on the New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars failed to cover by 16.5 and 14 points, respectively, in double-digit home losses to the Arizona Cardinals and Tennessee Titans.
So, on to our three Week 15 NFL underdog predictions …
NFL underdog predictions: Week 15
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 5:45 a.m. ET.
Jacksonville Jaguars +12.5 (-110) at Baltimore Ravens
Yes, we’re going right back to the one-win Jaguars again, and this time they’re catching nearly two touchdowns in Baltimore.
QB Lamar Jackson and the 8-5 Ravens are the talk of the league following their highly entertaining 47-42 Monday night win against the Cleveland Browns, but the undeserved cover courtesy of the final-play fluke safety helps mask the fact this is essentially a sub-.500 team against the spread (7-6 currently). Now, it’s a prime letdown spot for the Ravens coming home to face the 1-12 Jags.
Also considering this is Baltimore’s third straight game on six days of rest, that should give a Jacksonville team that just reinstated QB Gardner Minshew as the starter under center a boost. Double-digit favorites are only 7-10 ATS against the midweek lines this season, and that gives us more reason to take the Jags to stay within 12 points in a loss.
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Chicago Bears +3.5 (-115) at Minnesota Vikings
Including the Bears here last week as slight home dogs against the Houston Texans just missed our three-game cut, and consequently, we missed out on an easy 36-7 outright win as Chicago snapped a six-game losing skid.
The Vikings, meanwhile, have won four of their last six, straight up and against the spread, including a 19-13 Week 10 win in Chicago as 3.5-point road favorites.
Despite that defeat, though, the Bears have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings and have covered in five of the last seven.
With two evenly matched teams, getting the field goal and the hook is the deal clincher. Bet on Da Bears.
Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints +3 (+100)
QB Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs enter this intriguing interconference contest with a league-best 12-1 SU record and eight-game win streak, but K.C. is only 6-7 ATS and has failed to cover in its last five contests.
Meanwhile, New Orleans is 10-3 SU and 7-6 ATS and is getting points for only the second time this season. That’s certainly significant as head coach Sean Payton’s teams are a league-best 23-9-1 (.719) ATS (17-16 SU) as an underdog (.719) since 2015.
Both teams are fighting for the No. 1 seed (and only first-round postseason byes) in their respective conferences, but the game is more important to the Saints who find themselves on the wrong side of the tiebreaker with the 10-3 Green Bay Packers.
QB Drew Brees likely won’t make it back from his rib injuries for this one, but look for an inspired effort from QB Taysom Hill, the New Orleans defense and a minor upset home win for the Saints.
Get some action on these NFL games or others by signing up and betting at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Also see:
- Report: Jacksonville has expressed interest in ESPN’s Louis Riddick for GM opening (Jags Wire)
- Trubisky says offense is doing things he’s been asking for (Bears Wire)
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