In a women’s strawweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba meet at UFC 256 at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2/ESPN+, followed by the main card on Pay-Per-View at 10 p.m. ET.
Dern (9-1) heads into the octagon with back-to-back submission victories over Randa Markos and Hannah Cifers. Each finish came in Round 1. It’s an impressive bounce back after a surprising unanimous-decision loss to Amanda Ribas Oct. 12, 2019. Each of Dern’s past three wins have come via submission, and of her 10 career professional bouts, six have ended by way of submission, all wins. She has never had a knockout win or loss, so that method of victory can mostly be avoided when betting.
Jandiroba (16-1) makes up the other end of this all-Brazilian battle of jiu-jitsu specialists. She has a slight one-inch reach advantage, but has just 1.22 significant strikes landed per minute to 3.07 for Dern. Like Dern, Jandiroba also likes to go to the canvas, recording consecutive victories via submission, including a tap of Felice Herrig with an armbar just 104 seconds into their fight on the UFC 252 card. In fact, the armbar is her go-to, with the rear-naked choke also one of her specialties.
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Mackenzie Dern vs. Virna Jandiroba: Betting odds, predictions and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:11 a.m. ET.
Dern (-200) is the moderate favorite on the 2-way line over Jandiroba (+165), but that’s just a little too expensive. Instead, look to the 5-way line and take DERN BY KO/TKO, DQ or SUBMISSION (+140) for a much better value.
In addition, taking OVER 2.5 ROUNDS (-150) is a solid play, while targeting DERN IN ROUND 3 (+1050) for an outstanding value. If you’re not feeling a winner but want some nice action, pick ROUND 2 (+475) and ROUND 3 (+750) for the finish. As long as the fight doesn’t end in Round 1, or go the distance, you cash, regardless of who wins the fight. Yes, you’ll lose one end, but you’d also be well ahead, particularly if it ends in the third.
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