We’ll get down to our Week 14 selections in a quick minute, but let’s get this out right up front: Week 13 is going to be a near-impossible act to follow.
Not only did our three underdog selections of a week ago go 3-0 against the point spread, but each won outright on the road by at least 6 points. The third, the Washington Football Team, knocked off the league’s only remaining undefeated team in the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Sunday, the Cleveland Browns and New England Patriots each won easily as road dogs of fewer than 6 points with the latter pummeling the clueless Los Angeles Chargers 45-0 by the league’s most lopsided margin of the season.
That gives us a 19-20 ATS record on the season as we look to continue the momentum and climb back over .500 down the stretch. As mentioned, it’s asking an awful lot of this underdog encore.
NFL underdog predictions: Week 14
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 4:50 p.m. ET.
Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants +1.5 (-110)
It’s a simple case of riding the momentum here as the Giants have won and covered the spread in four straight games — including Sunday’s shocking 17-12 road win over the Seattle Seahawks as 10-point underdogs — while the Cards are 1-4 in their last five games and failed to cover in each of them.
Giants QB Daniel Jones, who missed last week’s game due to a hamstring injury, could be back for the Giants in Week 14. They’re 8-2 ATS as underdogs this season. QB Kyler Murray and the Cardinals are just 2-5 ATS as favorites.
In light of those numbers, we gotta go with the G-Men in this one.
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Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars +7 (-105)
It’s a similar story in this AFC South tussle as 8-4 Tennessee is only 2-6 ATS when laying points this season while the 1-11 Jags are 6-5 ATS as underdogs.
That very scenario played out in Week 2 in Nashville as the Titans won 33-30 but the visiting Jaguars covered as 7-point road underdogs.
Mike Glennon, Jacksonville’s third starting QB this season, has given the offense a noticeable lift, leading the team to 25 and 24 points in narrow losses to the Cleveland Browns and Minnesota Vikings, respectively, the last two weeks.
Meanwhile, the Tennessee defense is surrendering 27.2 points per game, including an average of 31.3 over its last four outings.
That’s not a recipe for many covers, especially when laying a touchdown, so take the Jags and the points.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions +7.5 (-115)
MVP candidate Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are on a roll, having won four of their last five games, both straight up and ATS, and only the Miami Dolphins, at 9-3, own a better ATS record on the season than Green Bay’s 8-4 mark.
The Lions, meanwhile, are 5-7 both SU and ATS with only two wins and covers in their last six games. Detroit, though, received a new-coach bump with Darrell Bevell last week in rallying for a 34-30 win at the rival Chicago Bears. Look for that spirit to carry over into this contest.
Green Bay rolled to a 42-21 home romp over the Lions as a touchdown favorite in Week 2, but Detroit had actually covered in the six previous head-to-head meetings, winning four of them outright.
The Pack should come out on top Sunday, but look for the Lions to get the cover.
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Also see:
- Giants-Browns flexed to Sunday night in Week 15 (Giants Wire)
- K’Lavon Chaisson came to life vs. Vikings (Jags Wire)
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