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In the Oklahoma City Thunder starting lineup as a second-year player, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander showed impressive growth on the offensive end. He could create his own looks, drive and finish, and instilled enough confidence in the organization that he could be the guy moving forward who kickstarts a rebuild.
General manager Sam Presti thinks that improvement on other end of the floor could escalate Gilgeous-Alexander to the next tier.
“Taking a big step defensively, I think, is going to catapult him into another level of player,” Presti said.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s defense was not bad last season. His 6-foot-5 height and 6-foot-11 wingspan allowed him to contain guards well and gave the Thunder the ability to play a three-guard lineup with a trio of positives on defense.
But there’s a difference between being a contributor on both ends and being a two-way star.
“The biggest thing is how much of a toll it takes on you to play at a high level on both ends of the floor,” Gilgeous-Alexander said. “The greatest players in the game can do it and ultimately that’s where I want to get to, so I know I got to do it.”
The third-year player said he added a little weight onto his 180-pound frame over the offseason as he got into better shape.
“That’s one of the things I focused on in this short little offseason, getting my body ready to be the best that I can be on both ends of the floor.”
Being the go-to player on both ends of the court would put him in rare company for guards.
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Last season, Gilgeous-Alexander had a usage rate of 23.5%. Now that he’s focus of the Thunder offense and one of the only proven shot creators on the roster, that can be expected to jump closer to 30%, even if head coach Mark Daigneault said the team plans to play a more positionless style of basketball.
“Shai’s going to have a lot of creation opportunities. He’s going to have the ball in his hands a lot. I just don’t want to misrepresent it and make everyone think he’s going to be walking ball over half court like a point guard in the traditional sense,” Daigneault said. “Hopefully we’re kind of flowing up the floor in a kind of a positionless manner, but he’s going to have, obviously, a lot of weight in our offense.”
The best defensive point guards typically don’t play lead ball roles. Only 14 guards in the league last season had a usage rate of 28.5% or higher, and none of them are considered particularly good defenders.
Patrick Beverley and Marcus Smart, both of who earned votes for Defensive Player of the Year, had usage rates of 13.1% and 18.3%, respectively. Ben Simmons, the best defensive guard in the league, may be the exception for lead playmakers and elite defenders, but he still only had a usage rate of 20.6%.
Now, Gilgeous-Alexander doesn’t have to be a Beverley- or Smart-level defender. Perhaps a better starting goal would be to exemplify the impact of a player like former teammate Dennis Schroder, a very capable defender whose usage rate was 26.2%.
The next step up for defense would be players like Eric Bledsoe and Jrue Holiday, who are strong defensive guards with usage rates of 23.3% and 24.1%, respectively, which will likely be lower than Gilgeous-Alexanders’ going forward.
Almost all the best players in the league, regardless of position, are two-way stars. The point guards who are dynamic on offense and defensive stoppers are rare commodities.
Gilgeous-Alexander has a long way to go to hit that definition of two-way star, but a more simple projection of an above-average defender who posts 20 points per game is not out of the question. Heck, he’s almost there right now after Year 2.
So what would Presti consider that “next level” he could “catapult” to? Is it fair to hope Gilgeous-Alexander eventually becomes a go-to playmaker on offense who can defend Steph Currys and Damian Lillards in crunch time? If he can do that, that would make him a superstar.
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