It’s time for a rematch. The Atlanta Falcons are feeling good after their 43-6 win over the Las Vegas Raiders. Despite such a strong performance a week ago, the Falcons are the underdogs for this Sunday’s matchup against the New Orleans Saints. A win by Atlanta would go a long way in the team’s quest for a playoff bid, and as unlikely as it sounds, a postseason berth is still within a reasonable grasp.
Here are four things to keep an eye on when the Falcons welcome the Saints in Week 13.
Ito Smith or Brian Hill
With the injury to RB Todd Gurley, the Falcons were forced to rely on the production of Brian Hill and Ito Smith. While the pair struggled to get going in the first half, Smith separated himself from the two with his second half performance. Smith ended the day with 12 carries for 65 yards and one touchdown.
With Todd Gurley downgraded to out for Thursday’s practice, it would seem that the pair of Hill and Smith will be featured again in Week 13. Last season, Brian Hill was the feature back when Devonta Freeman went down with an injury against New Orleans. Hill went for 61 yards on 20 carries in the Falcons’ 26-9 win over their rivals.
Last Sunday was the first time Ito has had over five carries in 2020. It’s unclear if that one game is enough to unseat Hill as the second running back on the team, but that is a question that will likely be addressed against the Saints.
Containing Cam Jordan
Cam Jordan terrorized the Falcons offense’ during their first meeting two weeks ago. Out of the eight sacks given up by the Falcons, Jordan was responsible for three of them. Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter addressed the media earlier in the week and thought his right tackle held up for the most part.
I thought Kaleb did fine until the fourth quarter and that’s really the same thing that happened in the second game last year compared to the first game last year. In the first game last year, we stayed ahead of the chains, ran the ball pretty well, we had the lead, and Kaleb did fine that game. The second game, we got behind, we had to throw it every play in the second half and Cam Jordan got rolling and that’s a tough matchup for anybody.
Over the course of the last three games, the Saints are second in the league, averaging 3.7 sacks per game. Historically, the Falcons haven’t done well containing Jordan, as his 20 sacks against Matt Ryan is an NFL record. Jordan has accounted for two or more sacks in five of the last six games. In the last two matchups alone, Jordan has accounted for seven sacks.
Offense needs to get going early
The Falcons’ offense has started to slow down over the past two games. If not for a Las Vegas penalty, the Falcons would have been held out of the end zone in the first half in both games. While kicking field goals is better than getting no points, you’re not going to beat the Saints with just field goals.
Atlanta has been poor in the red zone, with a 50 percent touchdown conversion rate, which is 27th in the league over the past three games. This is a stark difference from the 82 percent New Orleans has converted.
If the Falcons were to get off to a fast start, this could force the Saints to start passing the ball, something they are struggling to do without Drew Brees in the lineup. In Week 12 against Denver, the Saints totaled 229 yards on the ground on 44 combined carries with four scores.
Defense needs to force Taysom Hill to pass
It’s no secret that passing the ball is not the New Orleans Saints quarterback’s strong suit. In his first two starts, Hill has amassed a total 311 yards on 39 attempts and one interception. Despite 233 of those yards coming in the Falcons first matchup with the Saints, this can mostly be attributed to the fact that the Falcons had no idea what to expect.
You can assume Taysom is the starter, but until there is quality game film of Hill at quarterback, it’s nearly impossible to prepare for what he brings. So for a defense that has been picked apart all season, it’s expected for Taysom to put up big numbers. I don’t expect the same thing the second go-around.
Against Denver, Hill only passed for 78 yards on nine completions with one interception and another fumble. He ended the game with a quarterback rating of 43. The young QB has yet to throw a touchdown pass in the NFL and shows no signs of ending that streak against Atlanta.
The Saints have averaged three offensive touchdowns the past three games. With the Falcons only averaging two a game, the defense will need to make up the ground to keep this game close.
[lawrence-related id=61787,61769,61744,61706,61675]
[vertical-gallery id=61689]