The Carolina Panthers have played 12 games this season. At 4-8, they’re not as bad as some people thought they would be coming into this year. Clearly, they still have a lot of room to develop, though. While there are questions about their offense, most of that growth will have to come on defense.
Under defensive coordinator Phil Snow, Carolina has had one of the most conservative units in football. Here are three defensive stats that help explain what this team has been up to on this side of the ball. According to Matt Bowen at ESPN, the team is playing cover 1 (man-free) on just 19.5% of their defensive snaps. That’s the second-lowest average in the league behind the Giants (16.0%).
Almost through Week 12 of the #NFL season —
Let’s look at defensive coverage rates again.
Cover 1 (man-free)
1. JAX — 49.0%
2. ATL — 46.2%
3. DEN — 45.5%
4. AZ — 45.1%
5. PHI — 44.7%28. TAM — 28.1%
29. LAR — 28.0%
30. GB — 27.3%
31. CAR — 19.5 %
32: NYG — 16.0%— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) December 2, 2020
This has been perhaps the most zone-heavy defense in the NFL this year. Bowen says they have played cover 3 more than anyone else (38.9%).
Cover 3 rates (3-deep, 4-under zone)
% of dropbacks
1. CAR — 38.9%
2. NYG —38.4 %
3. LAC — 36.5%
4. WASH — 32.7%
5. HOU — 31.1%28. PIT — 13.7%
29. MIN— 13.1%
30. NO — 12.8%
31. LV — 11.4%
32. DEN — 9.2% #NFLESPN pass classification using NFL Next Gen Stats data
— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) December 2, 2020
The Panthers also have one of the league’s lowest blitz rates. They are sending five or more pass rushers only 18.8% of the time. Only three teams are bringing extra pressure less often.
Defensive “blitz” rates — 5 or more pass rushers
% of opponent dropbacks
1. PIT — 42.2%
2. TAM — 39.7%
3. MIA — 39.1%
4. AZ — 38.8%
5. BAL — 38.2%28. NYG — 18.9%
29. CAR — 18.8%
30. LV — 16.7%
31. DET — 16.4%
32. LAC — 15.6% #NFL— Matt Bowen (@MattBowen41) December 2, 2020
This is mostly about personnel. If Snow had a stronger pass rushing unit (the Panthers rank No. 26 in sacks per game) and a couple of cornerbacks who could shut down great receivers one-on-one, the Panthers would likely be playing a bit more man.
Sometimes these conservative tendencies have gotten out-of-hand, though. Snow has taken a lot of criticism for his habit of rushing three and dropping eight when trying to protect a lead. Sunday’s loss to the Vikings was an perfect example of how that strategy can go wrong very fast. Facing a series of weak three-man fronts, Kirk Cousins was able to march down the field with ease and throw the game-winning touchdown. Coach Matt Rhule told reporters that Snow indicated if he could do it over again he would have brought more rushers.
It’s tough to be too hard on Snow, though. While he has a lot of experience as a coach, this is his first year as a playcaller at this level and he has one of the weakest defensive units in the NFL on paper. In fact, if you took away either Brian Burns or Jeremy Chinn for any length of time, it could be in the running for the worst in the league.
Snow could stand to be more aggressive, but Marty Hurney has to find a way to get him more talent.
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