All things have come down to Oklahoma, Kansas State and West Virginia. Kind of.
The Big 12 picture is starting to become clearer and clearer. With Iowa State’s win yesterday, Oklahoma is now winning out and an Iowa State win from returning back to the Big 12 Championship picture.
That is the simple way of figuring out who will make the Big 12 Championship game if the Sooners win out as expected. Or Oklahoma State dropping one to TCU or Baylor.
If West Virginia beats Iowa State next Saturday, things can get a little tricky. There is one scenario that would keep Oklahoma out if the Sooners win out and things happen elsewhere.
There is also a scenario where those things can be wrapped up by Saturday night and Oklahoma controls its destiny thanks to one of the final tiebreakers the Big 12 has in place. And that comes down to the Kansas State-Baylor game that is scheduled to kickoff at 6 p.m. CT.
The Big 12 would get all the way down to No. 3 under the first ‘b’ in this scenario:
Here is how the outcome of Kansas State-Baylor impacts Oklahoma’s race in the Big 12.
IF KANSAS STATE WINS …
- Kansas State would move to 5-3 in the Big 12, keeping West Virginia (currently 4-3) out of the tiebreaker assuming it loses to Oklahoma. Texas would also have three losses and the winner of that game would be 6-3.
- Kansas State would be a win against Texas away to becoming the fourth-ranked team in the Big 12.
- Per the Big 12 tiebreaker rules, if Iowa State were to lose to West Virginia, the fourth-ranked team would help decide the Big 12 Championship teams.
- Oklahoma State and Iowa State beat Kansas State, Oklahoma did not.
- Oklahoma would be left out of the Big 12 Championship game.
IF BAYLOR WINS …
- Kansas State would move to 4-4 in the Big 12.
- A West Virginia win over Iowa State and a loss to Oklahoma would make the Mountaineers 5-4 in the Big 12.
- A Kansas State win over Texas would make both teams 5-4 (assuming Texas beats Kansas).
- There would then be a three-way tie for first-place in the Big 12 (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Iowa State at 7-2) and a three-way tie for fourth-place (West Virginia, Texas and Kansas State at 5-4) in the Big 12.
- Per the Big 12 tiebreaker rules, ‘ If more than a two-way tie exists amongst the remaining teams in the Conference standings, the record against the collective tied teams as a group will be used’. Oklahoma, Iowa State and Oklahoma State would be 2-1 against the teams tied for fourth.
- Next in line in the Big 12 tiebreaker rules is scoring differential amongst the teams tied. Oklahoma is +21 against Iowa State and Oklahoma State. Iowa State is +4 and Oklahoma State is -17.
- Oklahoma and Iowa State would be the Big 12 Championship teams even with an Iowa State loss to West Virginia. Oklahoma State would be eliminated unless Oklahoma was to lose another game.
- If Texas beats Kansas State, this scenario with an Iowa State loss to West Virginia becomes a moot point. The Longhorns would become the fourth-ranked team and Oklahoma and Iowa State would also be the Big 12 Championship teams.
[vertical-gallery id=20861]