The Vikings will likely be without Pro Bowl wide receiver Adam Thielen on Sunday against the Panthers.
That means rookie Justin Jefferson will be the clear WR1.
Jefferson has been the best rookie wide receiver in the NFL this season, amassing 45 receptions for 848 yards and four touchdowns. The first-round pick already has four 100-yard games this season.
Jefferson has received about 5.9 targets per game this season, while Thielen has received 7.6. Of course, Jefferson won’t get all of Thielen’s targets but there’s a good bet that he’ll get three or four of them. Let’s say Jefferson gets 8.9 targets. With a 76.3% catch rate, that puts him at 6.8 catches in the game. And with his 18.8 yards per catch, that puts him at 127.8 receiving yards in the game.
Thielen also leads the league with 11 touchdown receptions. If the Vikings are throwing in the red zone, we can probably expect Cousins to look to Jefferson first.
Of course, Carolina’s secondary will focus more on Jefferson and that could force Kirk Cousins to throw more to players like Kyle Rudolph and Bisi Johnson.