In a featherweight bout on the main card, Bill Algeo and Spike Carlyle meet at UFC on ESPN+ 42 – also called UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark – Saturday at the UFC’s APEX facility in Las Vegas. The prelims kick off at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by the main card on ESPN/ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET.
Carlyle (9-2) steps into the octagon standing four inches shorter than his counterpart, and he has a 2.5-inch reach disadvantage, too. But what he lacks in physical stature, he makes up for with experience, takedown ability and wrestling.
Carlyle was surprised last time out on the main card May 30 against Billy Quarantillo, losing a unanimous decision. If you remember, Carlyle thought he had the finish, and walked away casually with his back turned. The fight wasn’t over, and Quarantillo clocked him in the back of the head, knocking him to the fence. That might have really struck a chord with the judges, and it’s a lesson that Carlyle learned the hard way. In two fights at the UFC level, he is 1-1, recording a first-round knockout in 85 seconds against Aalon Cruz in Jacksonville on Feb. 29.
Algeo (13-5) made his UFC debut last time out on Aug. 29 in this very same venue, falling by unanimous decision to Ricardo Lamas on the Smith-Rakic card. He is a punching machine, racking up an impressive 7.87 significant strikes landed per minute over his career, but that speed was a bit muted in his bout with the veteran Lamas. Fights at the Ring of Combat level, or in the CFFC is much different than the experienced and speed of fighters at the top level of MMA.
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Spike Carlyle vs. Bill Algeo: Betting odds, predictions and picks
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 3:30 p.m. ET.
CARLYLE (-189) is right about at the level of my limit for betting a fighter on the 2-way line. However, he was embarrassed a bit and angered by his loss last time out against Quarantillo. He won’t be caught letting his guard down ever again, and he is likely to be ultra-aggressive firing out of the box against Algeo.
Algeo is in need of a win to avoid the potential danger of being dropped from the promotion, but you simply can’t take him on the 2-way line. He struggled in his fight against Lamas, and the switch stance Carlyle will be looking to get Algeo to the ground as quickly as possible. He is 3-0 via submission in 11 career professional fights, and 5-0 via KO/TKO. That’s eight fights for Carlyle finished inside the distance, and he’ll look to add another one here.
Bet NO (-154) ON ‘WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?’, as it is worth the moderate juice, and taking CARLYLE BY KO/TKO, DQ OR SUBMISSION (+115) on the 5-way line is also a good play.
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Also see:
- Curtis Blaydes tests positive for COVID-19, UFC on ESPN 18 main event scrapped (MMA Junkie)
- More UFC/MMA coverage from MMA Junkie
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