The Oregon Ducks (2-0) host the UCLA Bruins (1-1) for a Pac-12 showdown Saturday at Autzen Stadium. The kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the UCLA-Oregon college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
The Ducks are No. 13 in the Amway Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
UCLA at Oregon: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 6:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: UCLA +525 (bet $100 to win $525) | Oregon -770 (bet $770 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: UCLA +17.5 (-110) | Oregon -17.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 64.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
UCLA at Oregon: Three things to know
- UCLA overcame COVID-19-altered scheduling to trounce California 34-10 last Sunday. The Bruins were originally slated to play the Utah Utes, and the Bears were to play the Arizona State Sun Devils, but a COVID outbreak amongst each team’s scheduled opponent forced those games to be canceled.
- Oregon came from 12 points behind to beat Washington State 43-29 and earn a backdoor cover as a 10.5-point favorite thanks to a one-yard touchdown run with 1:40 left.
- The Ducks blew out the Bruins 42-21 the last time these teams met in 2018, which was Chip Kelly’s first year as UCLA’s head coach.
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UCLA at Oregon: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Oregon 33, UCLA 27
Money line (ML)
UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s questionable game status is the lead in the story of UCLA-Oregon. His status is based on clearing Pac-12 COVID protocols after a teammate tested positive for the virus.
With all of Oregon’s turnover on offense (most notably QB Justin Herbert getting drafted into the NFL), I’d make UCLA a live dog. Thompson-Robinson is in his third season in Chip Kelly’s offense, UCLA has a higher net yards per play and its money line is insanely juicy.
Until I know the QB’s status, I’ll save my quarter-unit wager on the Bruins. PASS ON THE MONEY LINE.
Against the spread (ATS)
Not only is Oregon No. 13 in the Amway Coaches Poll but it is also top-10 in both Football Outsiders’ FEI and ESPN’s SP+ rankings.
However, let’s pump the brakes on this 2020 Oregon team. Oregon’s 21-point victory over Stanford looks more impressive than it was. The Ducks outgained the Cardinals by an average of only 7.5 to 7.2 yards per play, were plus-4 in turnover differential and Stanford committed 10 penalties for 100 yards.
UCLA’s opening-game 48-42 loss to Colorado as a 6.5-point favorite looked especially bad because Colorado’s head coach was making his debut. UCLA shot itself in the foot, going minus-4 in turnover differential which got them into negative game script.
I’d love the Bruins getting points if Thompson-Robinson were playing but I’ll GAMBLE ON UCLA +17.5 (-110) for a half-unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
I kind of want to trust all of the college football nerds that have Oregon’s defense as a top-tier unit because through two games the numbers don’t align.
The Ducks are 113th in opponent’s yards per play, 51st in opponent’s 3rd down conversion percentage and 99th in opponent’s yards per rush. It’d obviously be easier to defend UCLA without Thompson-Robinson, so that has to be factored into the total handicap.
The Bruins are 10th in yards per play and 39th in yards per rush, which is huge because Oregon gains the most yards per play on the ground.
Additionally, the sharps are on the Under and the public is on the Over: 91% of the cash is on the Under while 71% of the bets placed are on the Over, according to Pregame.com.
GIMME UNDER 64.5 (-110) for 1.5 units.
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