The Atlanta Falcons (3-6) visit the NFC South rival New Orleans (7-2) in Week 11 for the first of two head-to-head meetings in three weeks. Kickoff at Mercedes-Benz Superdome is at 1 p.m. ET. Below, we preview the Falcons-Saints betting odds and lines and make our NFL picks and predictions.
Falcons at Saints: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 6:21 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Falcons +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Saints -182 (bet $182 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Falcons +3.5 (-110) | Saints -3.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 49.5 (O: -115 | U: -106)
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Falcons at Saints: Game notes
- Saints QB Drew Brees (ribs, lung, shoulder) is expected to miss the next 2-3 games due to his multiple injuries. It has been reported QB/TE Taysom Hill will draw the Week 11 start under center. He has completed 10 of 18 pass attempts for 205 yards with no touchdowns and one interception in his career.
- Hill’s still getting the nod over official backup – and former No. 1 draft pick of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – QB Jameis Winston, who completed 6 of 10 passes for 63 yards in relief of Brees last week.
- The Falcons come off a Week 10 bye which came on the heels of their first two-game winning streak of the season. They’re 3-1 under interim head coach Raheem Morris after an 0-5 start.
- The Saints beat the San Francisco 49ers 27-13 at home last week to extend their winning streak to six games.
- The two rivals split their head-to-head series last season, with each team winning on the road. Atlanta beat New Orleans 26-9 at the Superdome in Week 10 with QB Matt Ryan throwing for 182 yards and 2 TDs with a pick.
Falcons at Saints: Key injuries
Falcons
- DE Dante Fowler (COVID-19) out
Saints
- TE Josh Hill (concussion) out
- RB Dwayne Washington (back) out
- CB Marshon Lattimore (abdomen) questionable
Falcons at Saints: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Falcons 24, Saints 23
Money line (?)
The Saints reported decision to go with Hill over Winston, who has 19,812 yards and 121 touchdowns in 74 games (70 starts), is surprising. As such, the FALCONS (+155) are in an excellent spot for a road upset of their most hated division rival.
Atlanta is getting WR Calvin Ridley back from injury and is at relatively full health following its bye. The Saints enter the week atop the NFC South, while the Falcons essentially need to run the table to have a shot at the postseason. They’ll win a third straight contest to keep hope alive heading into a stretch of playing three of four games at home.
Against the spread (?)
The spread has been plummeting toward the Falcons since the news broke on Hill’s expected start. Atlanta was being spotted 5 points Thursday evening.
I like the FALCONS +3.5 (-110) to win outright as the primary play on this game, so we may as well add the 3 points of insurance in a potential loss. Both teams are 4-5 ATS.
Over/Under (?)
Again, this selection is heavily based on Hill drawing the start over Winston. Winston has long been a friend to Over bettors with his ability to throw down field and his propensity for turnovers to set up points for the opposition.
Expect a simpler game plan for Hill’s first start as a quarterback and a heavy lean on the Alvin Kamara-led run game for the Saints. Back the UNDER 49.5 (-106).
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Also see:
- 11 QB NFL Draft options for Atlanta (Falcons Wire)
- Report: Hill to start at QB (Saints Wire)
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