Last week, Lamar Jackson stated on the Rich Eisen Show that part of the problem with the Ravens’ passing offense is that defenses are calling out which plays are coming, and with that, “They know what we’re doing. Sometimes stuff won’t go our way if they’re beating us to the punch.”
We had to make sure we heard #RavensFlock QB @lj_era8 correctly when he told us why his offense is having a tougher time this year compared to 2019:#NFL pic.twitter.com/s9G7JgtmEA
— Rich Eisen Show (@RichEisenShow) November 11, 2020
I wrote last week that this isn’t as big a deal as Jackson is making it out to be. Defensive players and defensive coordinators and advance scouts study trends and tendencies too, and they’re able to impart upon their players and upon themselves what an offense might be doing. More problematic in my opinion is that Jackson is being asked to do more as a passer this season, and it’s not working. The reasons why are open to interpretation — there are people who will tell you that Roman’s passing concepts are indeed to predictable, and that’s holding Jackson back. It’s clear that Baltimore’s run game is not what it was last season, and you can blame that on everything from defenses stacking the box to Marshal Yanda’s retirement to Ronnie Stanley’s season-ending ankle injury… there are attendant issues all over the place there.
And here’s the thing about Roman’s allegedly “too-predictable” offense from a passing perspective — coaches will say all kinds of things about their players in press conferences, but if you want to know how coaches really feel, you’ll know when you see what’s happening on the field. And while Roman has staple passing concepts he wants his quarterback to follow, but that can be said of any offensive play-designer. Most teams don’t have 100 different passing plays — they have, say, 20, with say, five different iterations. The ratio varies from team to team, but it’s not like your playbook is going to be full of wild variance as opposed to closer clusters of married concepts.
So then, we have to run with what Roman is actually doing to scheme guys open, how Jackson is reacting to that, and how defenses are reacting to him. Mike Renner of Pro Football Focus wrote an excellent article this week in which he detailed some of the ways in which opposing defenses are keeping Jackson in check as a passer. As Renner points out, Baltimore’s usage of shifts and motion (71.1% in 2019 vs. 68.8% in 2020), play action (35.2% vs. 32.4%) and heavy sets remain relatively unchanged from last season to this season. It’s how defenses are matching up with those ideas that makes the difference. Now, instead of staying in base personnel to counter the Ravens’ multi-faceted run game, teams are going heavy sub-package and adding man coverage.
This would seem to be nuts for a couple of reasons — first, playing a lot of man coverage against a running quarterback seems like a recipe for disaster. When you’re playing man on the outside, your cornerbacks have to turn their heads away from the quarterback, and that gives the quarterback free rushing lanes. And if you’re playing against lighter boxes, you should be able to run the ball more efficiently. But defenses are choosing to tackle the Ravens with speed and multiplicity of coverage, and it’s working in ways the Ravens would prefer it didn’t.
This season, Jackson has faced dime defenses (six defensive backs) on 75 of his dropbacks. He’s completed 38 of 61 passes for 420 yards, 283 air yards, one touchdown, two interceptions, 10 sacks, and quarterback rating of 74.5. He’s much better against base, and he’s actually dominant against nickel defenses (74 of 111 for 820 yards, 329 air yards, eight touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 107.9), so there appears to be something about that sixth defensive back, whether it’s a cornerback or a safety, that’s throwing Jackson off.
Last Sunday night in a 23-17 win, the Patriots played dime against the Ravens on 13 snaps. Jackson completed nine of 11 passes for 87 yards, one touchdown, one interception against it. As has been the case, Jackson was better when facing nickel — there, he completed all 10 of his attempts for 131 yards and a touchdown.
Now, we need to get into what Jackson is seeing, what is being schemed open for him, and how often he’s leaving stuff on the table. Let’s go to the tape.