Similarly to last season, NFL point spread underdogs have been showing some real midseason bite.
Underdogs have gone 19-9 against the spread over the last two weeks and have won 12 of those 28 games outright.
We’ve taken advantage here in underdog corner, posting a 5-1 record to climb to 14-13 ATS on the season. Last week, two of our three selections were outright winners in the New York Giants and New Orleans Saints — the latter in stunning and smashing 38-3 fashion — while the Detroit Lions’ 34-20 loss in Minnesota denied us a third straight 3-0 week.
Favorites are due to bounce back this week, but we do like the looks of the following trio of dogs.
NFL underdog predictions: Week 10
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 2:25 p.m. ET.
Seattle Seahawks +1.5 (-110) at Los Angeles Rams
After their 5-0 start, the 6-2 Seahawks have dropped two of their last three contests and have allowed the 5-3 Rams and Arizona Cardinals to narrow the gap in the league’s most competitive division.
The Rams are coming off a bye and have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings with Seattle. The Seahawks’ lone victory was a 30-29 home win in Week 5 of last season.
The Seahawks’ league-worst pass defense (362.1 yards allowed per game) is definitely a concern, but during the head coach Pete Carroll/QB Russell Wilson era (since 2012), they own the league’s second-best ATS winning percentages following a loss (26-12-3, .684) and as a road underdog (20-10-2, .667). That’s what we’re banking on here against a largely untested Rams squad that is 1-2 straight up against teams with winning records.
Look for an outright Seattle win in L.A.
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Denver Broncos +5 (-110) at Las Vegas Raiders
Vegas has won three of its last four games and, at 5-3, has slid into the AFC playoff conversation as the conference’s current No. 6 seed.
The 3-5 Broncos, meanwhile, have won three of their last five games following an 0-3 start and are 3-1 ATS on the road this season.
The teams have split their last 10 head-to-head meetings with only four of the games decided by more than seven points.
Denver has shown some offensive life of late with 58 combined points in its last two games and features the better defense in this matchup. That should be enough to keep this one close.
Go with the Broncos and the points.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears +2.5 (-106)
RB Dalvin Cook and the 3-5 Vikes are cruising with the stud running back rolling up 478 total yards and six touchdowns in impressive back-to-back NFC North wins over the Green Bay Packers (28-22) and Lions (34-20).
The Bears, meanwhile, have dropped three straight after a 5-1 start but do boast one of the league’s better defenses with an average of 21.1 points allowed per game (seventh best) and 5.1 yards per play (eighth).
Against the run, the Bears are in the league’s top 10, allowing 4.1 yards per attempt, and have limited Cook to a total of 86 rushing yards on 34 attempts (2.5 yards per carry) in three career meetings — all in the last two seasons.
More importantly, Chicago has swept the season series the last two years, winning the four contests by an average of 7.8 points, and, adding it all up, it looks like the wrong team is favored here.
Bet on the Bears to cover and win the Monday Night Football matchup outright.
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Also see:
- Biggest surprise, disappointment from 1st half (Seahawks Wire)
- Gordon’s suspension could be back until 2021 (Broncos Wire)
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