The Denver Nuggets came close to making the NBA Finals but were stymied in the Western Conference Finals by the Los Angeles Lakers.
They are one star away from forming a nasty trio with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray that would make them serious contenders.
Maybe they could go all-out over the next two years and trade for Oklahoma City Thunder guard Chris Paul.
In this deal, the Thunder would add some tradable two-way players while Denver would be making a high-risk, high-reward trade that could net them a championship.
The proposal
Thunder receive: Will Barton, Gary Harris, 2021 lottery-protected first-round pick
Nuggets receive: Chris Paul, Terrance Ferguson, 2021 second-round pick
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Why the Thunder do it
Will Barton and Gary Harris may not be stars, but they are very capable 3-and-D players who fit in well with the Thunder’s style.
With two years left on both of their contracts, Oklahoma City could feel out contenders at the deadline to trade them for first-round picks. In the meantime, they can form a three-wing tendem next to Lu Dort with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander running the point. That would be strong defense on the perimeter and more shooting than Oklahoma City has had in years.
More likely than not, this deal eventually turns into a return of three first-round picks or young assets.
Even if neither player is traded, the Thunder save about $12 million with this move. Terrance Ferguson is a decent young player, but in his final year before restricted free agency, the team needs to decide whether he’s a long-term option. He might not be, and he definitely wouldn’t net a first-round pick like Barton or Harris.
The swap of what is expected to be a late first-round pick for an early second-rounder is the Nuggets’ price for acquiring Ferguson, who will be needed as wing depth without Barton or Harris.
Why the Nuggets do it
Giving up two strong 3-and-D players is tough to do. But the Nuggets just saw they can win without Barton. He was injured during their entire playoff run to the Western Conference Finals.
So if Barton is expendable — and I say that with all due respect, for I like him a lot as a role player — the Nuggets are essentially trading Paul for Harris. When it’s written like that, Denver fans should be salivating.
Thunder fans are keenly aware that the point guard scored the most crunch-time points in the league this past season.
The second-most was Nikola Jokic. For a team that had to come back from multiple 3-1 playoff deficits, putting the most clutch player in a lineup with the second-most would be promising.
More broad than that, there’s a small window before the 2021 free agency class potentially throws off the league balance. The Nuggets were not good enough to beat the Lakers. Adding a star can help. If the Brooklyn Nets and Golden State Warriors are still finding their rhythm, that’s all the more reason to attack now.
Ferguson is an OK player and good defender. His inclusion is to offset the wing defense that will be missing from the Nuggets should they make this trade. His presence can be useful against the star wings of the west.
Plus, with his restricted free agency approaching, Denver would have contract control over him in an offseason where their financials would be thrown out of whack.
Why the Thunder don’t do it
Harris and Barton are good players, but together they’re paid $32 million and the organization would have to put in extra effort to trade both of them. It’s not as clean a swap as some other ideas that would net Oklahoma City a draft pick without the extra hassle of making a trade.
Additionally, they wouldn’t fit any Thunder timeline to prominence. They’re players who can help great teams become contenders, but won’t help bad teams become good.
Why the Nuggets don’t do it
They have to be certain Paul’s fit works. Murray is a point guard. Jokic is a ball-dominant center. If the three of them aren’t able to share playmaking duties, the season would be over.
This trade also cripples any cap flexibility. Projecting further out, the Nuggets make this trade, then re-sign Jerami Grant using Bird Rights and match an offer made to Torrey Craig, a restricted free agent.
From there, the Nuggets rotation would look like:
Paul, Murray, Craig, Grant, Jokic with Monte Morris, Ferguson, Michael Porter Jr., a free agent signed the mid-level exception and the No. 22 draft (may I recommend a center like Jalen Smith, Daniel Oturu or Isaiah Stewart?). Perhaps Bol Bol can grow into a role player, too.
Is that more favorable than running it back with Harris and Barton and using the Paul Millsap and Miles Plumlee savings for depth?
Who says no?
This feels too risky for the Nuggets. It also poses defensive questions: Paul is a good defensive guard, but do they really want to rely on Craig, Ferguson and Grant to guard the likes of LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard?
I say no if I’m Denver, but the prospect of adding a star to a team that may be one missing piece away from tile contention is tantalizing.
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