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A battle of strengths will play out Sunday when the Green Bay Packers take on the Houston Texans.
One of the best defenses in football at limiting big plays will face one of the best offenses in football at creating big plays. The showdown between the Packers defense and Texans offense in the big-play department could help decide the contest.
According to Ben Fennell of The Athletic, the Packers are tied for first in the NFL in number of passing plays over 20 yards allowed. Mike Pettine’s defense has allowed only 13 in five games. Of the 13, six occurred in the second half of games where the Packers led by two scores or more.
In general, teams are throwing successfully against the Packers this season (70.2 completion percentage, 106.2 passer rating), but they aren’t hitting the explosive plays at a high rate, especially on passes down the field.
The Packers will be challenged to limit big plays in Houston on Sunday.
Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson ranks first in the NFL in completions gaining over 20 yards, creating 27 such plays. He also leads the NFL in yards per attempt, a product of the big-play production. Receiver Brandin Cooks ranks tied for fourth in the NFL with eight catches over 20 yards, while Will Fuller and Randall Cobb have combined for 10. Eight different players for the Texans have at least one catch of 20 or more yards.
In terms of passes thrown over 20 yards in the air, Cooks and Fuller have caught all nine of their catchable targets, per Pro Football Focus. The catches have gained 308 yards and produced two touchdowns.
The Packers will be stressed vertically on Sunday, especially if safety Darnell Savage doesn’t play.
Fuller, Cooks and Kenny Stills can all run and stretch the field, and Watson isn’t afraid to push the ball downfield in hopes of creating a valuable explosive play.
Offenses want explosive plays because they create quick scoring opportunities. Defenses want to limit them in hopes of making offenses traverse the whole field in small chunks without a mistake to score points.
The Packers have clearly prioritized taking away deep shots in 2020, believing they’re disruptive enough in the pass-rush and good enough on the perimeter to cause a drive-killing mistake. So far, the pass-rush hasn’t been as disruptive, and the secondary isn’t breaking up passes or causing turnovers, but the Packers are still forcing teams to work hard to score.
At some point, Pettine must believe the pass-rush and coverage combo will create the desired effect.
While the Packers might not have Savage available on Sunday, cornerback Kevin King could return, and he’s often at his best when pressing receivers early in routes and challenging vertical routes with his speed and size. On the other side, Jaire Alexander has been terrific to start the 2020 season and is capable of taking away either Fuller or Cooks in a one-on-one matchup.
Given the various matchups on each side of the ball, Sunday has the makings of a potential shootout. Most shootouts are packed with explosive plays. The Packers must make the Texans score their points the hard way.
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