The Green Bay Packers are a contender with a few obvious roster holes, making them a prime candidate for rampant trade speculation.
Just don’t bank on Packers GM Brian Gutekunst actually making a big splash before Nov. 3, the NFL’s trade deadline.
Sure, the Packers could use some help along the defensive line or at linebacker. Adding another playmaker on offense is also appealing.
The financial realities for the Packers ruin most of the speculative deals, mostly because trading for one of the many players who could be available would require sacrificing precious cap space for 2021, when the salary cap is expected to tighten significantly due to revenue loss across the league. The cap could drop to as low as $175 million, putting stress on all teams. With millions in contractual commitments in 2021 but also several important players with expiring deals, the Packers will really feel the tightening of the cap.
Adding more stress to the equation doesn’t sound like a Packers-like move.
When trading for a player, the team must assume the remaining portion of the player’s base salary for the season. So even 10-game rentals can be expensive.
Carrying over money from 2020 to 2021 is vitally important this year.
The Packers have several major free agents coming up, including left tackle David Bakhtiari, center Corey Linsley, running back Aaron Jones and cornerback Kevin King. Gutekunst and Russ Ball need every last penny if they are going to retain a good chunk of their players with expiring contracts.
In fact, the Packers are probably already in a position where they will need to restructure a few big deals or cut a few veterans to make it all work. Trading for a veteran with a non-minimum salary in 2020 would only complicate the process and likely require more restructures and more cuts this spring.
The Packers could, in theory, swing a deal for a player with a low base salary in 2020, lessening the bite out of this year’s available cap, which can be carried over into next year. But teams generally aren’t interested in just giving away players who have most of their salary tied into bonuses.
According to Ken Ingalls, a CPA who tracks the Packers cap, Green Bay has roughly $5.7 million in effective salary cap space right now. It’s enough to swing a deal, but not nearly enough for the Packers to complete a trade and feel good about what needs to get done in 2021.
If the Packers do make a big splash, they’ll be going all-in for 2020. A big splash now would mean an exodus of players from Green Bay in 2021.