It is no secret that the Southeastern Conference has been a perennial powerhouse over the past decade-plus, winning 10 of 14 national championships between four teams: the LSU Tigers, Alabama Crimson Tide, Auburn Tigers and — most distantly — the Florida Gators.
Ari Wasserman and Max Olson at The Athletic took a look at the SEC from top-to-bottom, assessing each school’s recruiting record over the past 10 years. The Georgia Bulldogs lead the way in the East Division, who can be expected to be among the top-5 classes year in and year out. The Gators trail their cross-border rivals by a small but appreciable margin, with reasonable expectations landing the program in the top-10 recruiting nationally on a yearly basis.
Here is a look at the aggregate data and the authors’ explanation.
Reasonable expectations: Top-10 classes
The data: Dating to 2002, Florida has had only two classes ranked lower than 10th nationally in seasons in which there was not a coaching transition, and both occurred under Jim McElwain’s watch — No. 12 in 2016 and No. 11 in 2017. Those rankings aren’t horrible, but they are below what should be expected at a school with so many built-in advantages.
Will Muschamp didn’t win a lot of games in Gainesville, but he stockpiled the roster with elite talent. His two full recruiting classes, in 2012 and 2013, ranked third nationally and included a total of five five-star prospects and seven other players ranked in the top 100. McElwain’s two full classes, on the other hand, had no five-stars and a total of five top-100 players. Dan Mullen is restoring order and will sign a third consecutive top-10 class in 2021.
The outlook: Florida, for all of its advantages, is proof that no program is immune to mediocre (or bad) coaching. Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer won at a high level, but Ron Zook, Muschamp and McElwain failed to meet high expectations. Mullen appears to be the right coach at the right time. He has the program recruiting at a consistent top-10 level once again, and that could get even better if the Gators start competing for championships, which they are close to doing. Florida has no ceiling.
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