The third-seeded Atlanta Braves meet the top-seeded Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas, Monday. The first pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET.
The Dodgers are the official home team because they finished with the better regular-season record and will be batting in the bottom of the inning for Games 1 and 2 (and Games 5 and 7, if necessary). Below, we analyze the Braves-Dodgers Game 1 MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Braves vs. Dodgers: Projected starting pitchers
LHP Max Fried vs. RHP Walker Buehler
Fried (regular season): 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 56 IP over 11 starts.
- 2020 postseason: 0-0 with a 3.27 ERA, 12 H, 4 ER, 9 K and 0 BB across 11 IP over 2 starts. Atlanta is 2-0 in Fried’s starts.
- Career vs. Dodgers: 0-2 with a 6.55 ERA, 1.91 WHIP, 16 K and 7 BB in 11 IP over 3 starts.
- The current Dodgers lineup vs. Fried: .379/.471/.690 with 3 HR in 29 at-bats.
Buehler (regular season): 1-0 with a 3.44 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 36 2/3 IP over 8 starts.
- 2020 postseason: 0-0 with a 3.38 ERA, 5 H, 3 ER, 16 K and 6 BB in 8 IP over 2 starts. Los Angeles is 2-0 in playoff games Buehler starts.
- Career vs. Braves: 2-0 with a 2.92 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, 12 K, 0 BB in 12 1/3 IP over 2 starts.
- The current Braves lineup vs. Buehler: .174/.224/.370 with 3 HR in 46 at-bats.
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Braves vs. Dodgers: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Dodgers
- 3B Edwin Rios (groin) questionable
Braves vs. Dodgers: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:45 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Braves 5, Dodgers 1
Money line (ML)
Both the Dodgers (-134) and BRAVES (+120) are both ripping through the NL playoffs, having swept their NL Wild Card Series and NL Division Series opponents.
Los Angeles was favored around -145 to -150 but the line has moved to Dodgers (-134) despite 70% of the money coming in on the Dodgers, according to Pregame.com. This is puzzling and it’s almost like the bookies want you to take the public darling Dodgers. We aren’t going to fall for it.
The Dodgers have the edge in the pitching matchup but Atlanta’s bullpen has been lights out this postseason. The Braves bullpen has allowed just one earned run in 20 1/3 innings pitched with a lower opponent batting average, lower WHIP, and a higher strikeout rate than the Dodgers.
Also, Buehler loves to throw his 97 mph fastball but the Braves had the highest batting average and wOBA versus fastballs during the regular season, according to Baseball Savant.
TAKE BRAVES (+120) to steal Game 1.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
It’s generally wise to grab the insurance but the Braves +1.5 (-167) have just a 30-35 run line record heading into this game. The Dodgers -1.5 (+140) are an MLB-best 40-25 against the RL.
Atlanta is just 5-9 on the RL when as an underdog so that nixes the idea of playing the alternate line of Braves -1.5 (+180).
PASS ON THE RUN LINE.
Over/Under (O/U)
Fried will look better in his first postseason start against the Dodgers than he did against the Miami Marlins because they are less familiar with him. Fried relies on his dolphin-like curveball and the Dodgers might not adjust to his style quickly.
According to Baseball Savant, the Dodgers faced the third-highest percentage of curveballs in the league but have the 12th-highest batting average against the pitch. This tells me opposing pitchers use a higher rate of curveballs because it’s the best chance to get this awesome LA lineup out.
I’ll just lean UNDER 8 (-106) though because these lineups are dynamite and the market is hitting the Over 8 (-115).
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