This was supposed to be a relatively uneventful week in the NFL. After a string of positive COVID tests forced the league to move around several games, the Week 5 slate didn’t look very interesting on paper.
But this is the NFL, and things never go as expected. Sunday’s game provided us with plenty of talking points. The Chiefs lost, the Falcons fired their coach, Jimmy Garoppolo was benched, Dak Prescott suffered a devastating injury and Alex Smith returned to the field. So, yeah, we’ve got a lot to talk about this week.
Welcome to the Monday Take Dump, where no take is too hot and all opinions are subject to change upon further review. Here are my five spiciest takes after a long day of watching football…
Get rid of the franchise tag
Is this an emotional overreaction to Dak Prescott’s devastating injury? Perhaps, but is there any good justification for the franchise tag still being a thing? An NFL player’s earning potential is already limited enough as it is given the brutal nature of the sport, so why are we giving teams more tools to avoid giving players long-term security?
And that’s really what the tag has been used for over the last two decades. It was originally implemented to help one particular team keep one particular player: Broncos owner Pat Bowlen insisted on the rule being instituted because he feared he’d lose John Elway with the league introducing free agency in 1993. It was even referred to as “The Elway Rule” at the time and Jim Quinn, a lawyer working for the players during the CBA negotiations, agreed to the rule based on a naive assumption it would be used sparingly.
“I never thought it would ever apply to any other player [other than a quarterback],” Quinn told Sports Illustrated in 2018.
He was wrong. 1n 1998, Ravens GM Ozzie Newsome used the tag to keep guard Wally Williams, an undrafted free agent who had exceeded expectations, and that’s when teams realized the tag wasn’t just a tool to keep superstars on the roster; they could also use it to avoid giving unproven players a big payday before they were sure it was earned.
For whatever reason, that’s where the Cowboys were at with Dak, one of the more accomplished young quarterbacks in the sport. A tight salary cap situation made it easier for Jerry Jones to justify using the tag on him instead of handing over the big extension he had earned.
Prescott will now enter the offseason with his future in doubt for no good reason at all. League rules had already prevented him from getting a much-deserved raise years ago, and now he’ll likely miss out on some money thanks to an outdated rule that, since its inception, has been used only to exploit players.
I didn’t feel good watching Alex Smith’s ‘feel-good story’ unfold
Let’s get one thing out of the way: Alex Smith deserves every bit of praise he’s received for working his way back from a brutal injury that required 17 surgeries and two years of rehab to overcome. It was a remarkable display of perseverance and his return to the field was one of those moments that draws so many of us to sports.
So why was it so hard to watch?
Like a lot of people, I had a hard time feeling good about watching Smith, whose leg will never be the same after an injury that nearly led to amputation, play football. Smith’s wife, who was in the stands for the game, didn’t seem to be enjoying herself, either.
Alex Smith's wife is all of us right now pic.twitter.com/11LcTRNvcU
— The Ringer (@ringer) October 11, 2020
Alex Smith's wife, Elizabeth, looking on as Alex warms up ❤️ pic.twitter.com/pq9Bn3zDWX
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) October 11, 2020
To make matters worse, the game was being played in the rain on a field that has been criticized by players for going on a decade now. Just last year, Richard Sherman said the field conditions were “as bad as I’ve seen” when the 49ers played Washington on a rainy day. Fortunately, it didn’t seem to be an issue for Smith on Sunday.
The game script was an issue, though. With the Football Team falling behind early, the Rams pass rush was able to just tee off on Smith, who was sacked six times and took a hit on at least a dozen plays.
The onslaught led to an NFL-produced video titled “Rams Defense Obliterates Washington w/ 8 SACKS! | NFL 2020 Highlights.”
Very cool!
If you take The Football Team at its word, Smith didn’t even *need* to take those hits. Kyle Allen, who started the game, had been cleared to return after being checked out for an arm injury (though, let’s be honest: that “arm injury” came on a devastating hit from Jalen Ramsey … to Allen’s head, not arm. So maybe he shouldn’t have been cleared.) Washington’s offense could not move the ball with Smith behind center and at a certain point, it felt like he was out there just for the spectacle.
Philip Rivers is not the biggest problem for the Colts
Any time Philip Rivers plays poorly in a game that has any kind of audience, the takes are always the same: Rivers’ arm is done. He’s washed. It’s to move on.
After the Colts loss in Cleveland, which featured two ugly picks from Rivers, I saw more than a few “Rivers is holding the Colts back” tweets circulating on Sunday. The take was mostly based on the idea that Indy is built to win with a great defense and a solid run game, and a turnover-happy quarterback does not pair well with that setup.
Just a couple problems with that thinking: The Colts’ early defensive performance was a bit misleading (as we learned on Sunday) and the run game has been one of the least efficient units in the league, ranking 27th in rush EPA and 24th in success rate. The Colts need Rivers to throw the ball if they’re going to make a playoff run this season.
And while Rivers may have cost his team a win on Sunday, the Colts had ranked 6th in EPA per dropback coming into the week — Sunday’s performance dropped them down to 13th — and Rivers ranks third amongst full-time starters in Next Gen Stats’ Completion Percentage Over Expectation. Outside of a few ugly picks, Rivers has had no problem making throws.
The interceptions have been bad, sure, but outside of those five plays, Rivers has looked like one of the better quarterbacks in the league. Certainly one of the most efficient ones. As long as he’s finding completions at an above-average rate, I’ll hold off on the “washed” talk.
A far bigger problem for Indianapolis has been its run-pass split on early downs. The Colts have been one of the more run-happy teams in the NFL this season…
And there’s no good reason for that dedication to the run. The Colts are averaging -0.06 EPA on those early-down runs while Rivers’ dropbacks are adding 0.17 expected points per play.
Frank Reich is a good coach — I think — and will eventually figure it all out. Despite a disappointing loss, I’d still consider the Colts the favorites in the AFC South, which isn’t saying much considering everything that’s going on in that division.
The 2020 49ers are officially canceled
With the defending NFC champs sitting at 2-3 and an expanded postseason field providing an extra slot in the playoff bracket, it may feel a bit premature to write them off this season. FiveThirtyEight is still giving them a 20% chance of making the playoffs. But after having watched the Dolphins run them off the field on Sunday, I’d say that’s about 20 percentage points too high.
This is where you’re probably expecting me to take a victory lap after Jimmy Garoppolo was benched, since I suggested the 49ers trade him in the offseason, but this prediction is based on what I saw out of that defense, which hardly resembles the world-conquering unit we saw in San Francisco last season. The pass rush, in particular, has taken a few major steps back. Ryan Fitzpatrick had enough time in the pocket to do his taxes Sunday and he took advantage of that time and a banged-up Niners secondary.
Yes, it’s true: The defensive depth chart looks like it got hit with a Thanos snap, but things aren’t really going to change this season. DeForest Buckner is in Indianapolis. Nick Bosa and Solomon Thomas are done for the season. Dee Ford was placed on short-term I.R. with an ominous-sounding back injury that led to Kyle Shanahan fielding questions about a possible retirement. Even if the secondary is bound to get healthy — Richard Sherman, Emmanuel Moseley and Akhello Witherspoon all missed Sunday’s game — this is largely the same secondary that struggled behind a so-so pass rush during the 2018 season.
With a sub-elite defense and an offense lacking (healthy) talent at the receiver position, it’s hard to see this team challenging the best teams in the NFC. Even if the 49ers can hover around .500 and challenge for that last wild card spot, this season isn’t ending with a sixth Lombardi, which had been the goal.
(As for Garoppolo: It’s clear he’s not the dude the 49ers thought he’d become when they signed him to a record-breaking deal, but I don’t think the benching was a sign of his demise. Shanahan said after the game that he sat Garoppolo because it was clear the ankle injury that had kept him out of practice was still affecting his throws. Knowing the 49ers would have to throw the ball, Shanahan didn’t want to expose him to a pass rush with its ears pinned back. I’d normally be skeptical, but it was clear that Garoppolo was not right on Sunday.)
Jon Gruden is one of the NFL’s best play-callers
Jon Gruden has made his fair share of mistakes since taking over the Raiders in 2018. He’s said some silly things, he’s made some questionable draft picks and he’s handed out some bad contracts in free agency. While Gruden has never held the GM title, it’s clear who’s calling the shots for Las Vegas so it’s fair to blame him for failing to build a competent defense.
What’s not fair is criticizing the job he’s done coaching up the offense, which just led the Raiders to a 40-32 win over a Chiefs team that had won 13 games in a row. Gruden has this offense headed for a second consecutive top-10 finish in offensive efficiency. After Sunday’s win, Las Vegas ranks sixth in EPA per play and third in success rate, and Gruden’s play-calling has been the driving force behind the success.
That was certainly the case on Sunday when Gruden put on a masterclass against one of the NFL’s best defensive coordinators, Steve Spagnuolo. It seemed like every big play the Raiders hit on was designed to attack the Chiefs’ defensive play-call. Let’s take a look at some examples.
First up: Nelson Agholor’s 59-yard touchdown catch in the second quarter.
Here are the dots for the play:
The Raiders send Henry Ruggs in motion at the snap, which occupies the corner’s attention (yellow), leaving Tyrann Mathieu to cover Agholor, who has a free release off the line of scrimmage (green).
The over route by Darren Waller draws Juan Thornhill from his deep quarter (yellow), vacating the area of the field where Agholor is headed (green).
Mathieu is expecting inside help that never comes, creating an open window that even Derek Carr couldn’t pass up.
Josh Jacobs’ touchdown that gave the Raiders a lead early in the fourth came on a beautifully designed trap play.
Frank Clark is left unblocked initially and he gets too far upfield, giving Waller, who’s coming across the formation, a good angle to block him out of the play.
That makes for a good gain, but it’s the additional eye candy that allows Jacobs to get into the end zone. The flat route by Hunter Renfrow draws Mathieu away from the run box (green) and Waller’s movement pulls Daniel Sorenside wide (yellow), leaving a massive lane for Jacobs with only a safety in between him and the end zone.
Play No. 3 wasn’t a touchdown but it was arguably the most important play of the game: Hunter Renfrow’s chain-moving catch on third-and-18, which extended the eventual game-winning drive.
The dots for the play:
Gruden could not have called a better play if Spagnuolo had given him the defensive call before the snap. The Chiefs lined up in a two-high safety shell but the backside safety rotated down to pick up Waller (green). Renfrow runs a deep over route into the area vacated by that safety (yellow).
With Agholor’s stop route holding the corner (green) and Jalen Richard’s swing route widening the flat defender (yellow), there’s a wide-open window for Carr to hit the throw.
Gruden had the hot hand in Kansas City and he’ll have to keep it up if the Raiders are going to score enough points to overcome the underwhelming defense he and Mike Mayock have built.