The Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays open the AL Championship Series Sunday at 7:37 p.m. ET (on TBS). The best-of-seven series will be played at San Diego’s Petco Park with top-seeded Tampa Bay as the home team the first two games and, if necessary, Games 6 and 7. Below, we analyze the Astros-Rays MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Season series: First meeting of 2020. These two met in an AL Division Series last year with the Astros winning in five games.
Astros vs. Rays: Projected starting pitchers
LHP Framber Valdez vs. LHP Blake Snell
During the regular season, Valdez went 5-3 with a 3.57 ERA (70 2/3 IP, 28 ER) in 10 starts and 1 relief appearance.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 4 K vs. Oakland Athletics in Game 2 of the ALDS Tuesday – Astros won 5-2
- Career vs. Rays: 0 appearances
- Career postseason: 2-0, 1.50 ERA (12 IP, 2 ER) in 2 starts, both in 2020
Snell posted a 4-2 record with a 3.24 ERA (50 IP, 18 ER) and 63 K in 11 regular-season starts.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 K vs. New York Yankees in Game 1 of the ALDS Monday – Rays lost 9-3
- Career vs. Astros (regular season): 2-2, 4.73 ERA (31 1/3 IP, 17 ER) in 6 starts
- Career postseason: 1-2, 2.81 ERA (16 IP, 5 ER) in 3 starts and 2 relief appearances; 1-1, 3.38 ERA (10 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 13 K in 2 starts this year
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Astros vs. Rays: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Astros
- OF Yordan Alvarez (knee) out for season
- RP Roberto Osuna (elbow) out for season
Rays
- RP Oliver Drake (hand) out
Astros vs. Rays: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 8:15 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Astros 3, Rays 2
Money line (ML)
Doesn’t it seem when a team wins an all-or-nothing, deciding series game – like the Rays (-150) did Friday in a Game 5 against the Yankees – it usually loses the first game of the next series?
That and the fact Valdez has pitched extremely well in his two postseason starts is why I like the ASTROS (+135).
New to sports betting? Every winning $1 bet on the Houston ML profits $1.35. Every $1.50 bet on the Tampa Bay ML profits $1 if it prevails.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Astros +1.5 (-162) | Rays -1.5 (+135)
AVOID. The Astros’ price is more expensive than I like. Plus, with our ML bet, we’ll cash plus-money when they win outright anyway.
Over/Under (O/U)
The UNDER 8 (-106) is the STRONGEST PLAY – which should be 1.5 times your usual wager. Look for the two starters to pitch at least six innings each. Then you get into the bullpens, which are both extremely good.
Tampa Bay relievers ranked third in the majors with a 3.37 ERA during the regular season.
Houston relievers didn’t allow a run in their first four games of these playoffs and own a 2.45 ERA (25 2/3 IP, 7 ER) in six postseason games so far. The UNDER cashes!
Want some action on this game? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
| Johnny’s 2020 MLB record | 70-48-1 |
| 2020 MLB postseason | 6-11 |
| 2020 overall record (all sports) | 111-81-3 |
| Strongest plays (all sports) | 56-31-1 |
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