The Texas State Bobcats (1-3, 1-0 Sun Belt) travel to Veterans Memorial Stadium in Troy, Ala., to tangle with the Troy Trojans (1-1, 0-0) Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Texas State-Troy college football betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Texas State at Troy: Betting odds and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 4:07 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Texas State +210 (bet $100 to win $210) | Troy -264 (bet $264 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Texas State +7 (-110) | Troy -7 (-110)
- Over/Under: 62.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Texas State at Troy: Three things to know
- Texas State is coming off a bye week after an impressive near upset (24-21 loss) at Boston College on Sept. 26. The Bobcats were also sharp in a season-opening 31-24 loss to now-ranked SMU. Normally a pass-first offense in the past, TSU has been more effective in keeping defenses honest with more of a running game in 2020. Paced by freshman RB Calvin Hill (243 yards, 5.0 YPC), the Bobcats have averaged 3.8 yards per tote. That figure stands out as a significant improvement after years of being a run-game bottom-feeder.
- Troy beat Middle Tennessee by 33 (47-14) on Sept. 19 and then was routed by buzz saw-BYU the following Saturday. Sophomore QB Gunnar Watson, who has completed 67.1% (47 of 70) of his passes this season, will look to get on track after a challenging game against the Cougars and then a bye week. A year ago in San Marcos, Texas, Troy defeated Texas State 63-27. The Trojans threw for 368 yards and six passing touchdowns in that Nov. 16 contest.
- The Trojans are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games with Texas State. Saturday’s game will mark Troy’s home opener this fall. Troy doesn’t have a great ATS history in recent home games, but the Trojans have been exceptional in bouncing back after losses. Troy is 6-1 ATS over its last seven games after being held under 20 points the previous game; the Trojans are 8-3 ATS over their last 11 games following a straight-up loss.
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Texas State at Troy: Odds, betting lines and picks
Prediction
Troy 35, Texas State 24
Money line (ML)
The TROJANS (-7) have been adept at creating havoc plays (interceptions, forced fumbles, tackles for losses, passes defended) in the defensive backfield. That defensive strength plays against the pass-first tendencies of a Bobcats (+7) offense. Figure on an early Troy lead, solid game control in the middle frames, and a two-score win for the home team by game’s end. BACK THE TROJANS.
Against the spread (ATS)
If you can get a tag closer to Texas State (+210), there is some value in trying to take the above ATS play and bracket a one-score game (by taking the favorite -7 and the underdog on the ML). Otherwise, stand down and AVOID.
Over/Under (O/U)
The market has ticked this total upward by nearly a field goal in recent days. The 62.5 line now has enough wiggle room to allow for VALUE ON THE UNDER.
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