The Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins will lock horns and match wits in Game 3 of their National League Division Series Thursday. The afternoon contest at neutral-site Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas is scheduled for a 2:08 p.m. ET start time. The Marlins will bat last as the official home team. Below, we analyze the Braves-Marlins Game 3 MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Series: Atlanta leads 2-0.
Braves vs. Marlins: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Kyle Wright vs. RHP Sixto Sanchez
Wright is a 25-year-old, third-year Major Leaguer making his first postseason start. The Atlanta right-hander posted a 5.21 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in eight starts over the regular season.
- Was shaky over four of his first five starts in the small-sample 2020 season, including back-to-back subpar efforts against these Marlins on either side of a stint on the injured list Aug. 14 and Sept. 8. He was solid over his last three regular-season starts with a 2.37 ERA.
Sanchez logged a 3.46 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over 7 starts during the regular season. The 22-year-old rookie was solid in his first playoff start, a scoreless five-inning stint against the Chicago Cubs Friday in Game 2 of the NL Wild Card Series.
- Excels at getting ground balls (58% GB) and limiting hard contact (29% HC).
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Braves vs. Marlins: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Marlins
- OF Starling Marte (finger) out
Braves vs. Marlins: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:10 a.m. ET.
Money line (ML)
The Marlins (+125) were a good fade candidate coming into the postseason. By some analytic estimates, Miami was some six or seven games out too far over its skis with a 31-29 record in the regular season. There figures to be some overripe assessments of the Marlins starting pitching — including Sanchez — and the offense (big BABIP numbers in high-leverage scoring situations). Throw in a bottom-5 bullpen, and you get a team not worthy of backing in October.
Atlanta (-139) was hammered early by the money line market for this contest. The BRAVES (-139) are still the lean but it may be wise to wait out a possible line correction toward Miami in order to get a better price.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
For a high-ish postseason run total, the ATLANTA -1.5 (+110) is worth a look. Miami scuffles against right-handed pitching (.691 OPS in the regular season). The Marlins lineup creates more right-vs.-right matchups than average and that plays into a strength for Wright, who owns a career .982 OPS-against when facing lefty bats and a .716 mark when facing righties.
New to sports betting? A $50 wager on the Braves -1.5 (+110) returns a $55 profit it Atlanta beats Miami by 2-or-more runs.
Over/Under (O/U)
An 8.5-run tag is drawing action on the high side. Again, that’s the lean and it’s worth waiting out the OVER 8.5 (-115) for a better price on a temporary dip.
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