NFL point totals have been exceptionally high through the first four weeks of the 2020 season with offenses having the jump on defenses across the league. Eight teams are averaging 30 or more points per game and nine are allowing at least 30 PPG. As such, bettors continue to have success by backing the Over.
SportsbookWire.com obtained some data from BetMGM to see how sportsbooks are adjusting their projected point totals and Over/Unders for the rise in scoring.
2020 NFL point totals and betting results
The following table looks at the average NFL point totals in each week compared to the results on BetMGM‘s Over/Under line.
| Week | Average total | Over/Under result |
| 1 | 45.5 | 9-7 (56% Over) |
| 2 | 46.1 | 11-5 (69% Over) |
| 3 | 48.2 | 9-7 (56% Over) |
| 4 | 49.6 | 7-7-1 (50% Over) |
As seen, BetMGM has adjusted total lines in order to get a desired 50-50 split on Over/Under results, despite the fact in-game scoring has continued to rise.
Which teams have seen the greatest rise in projected totals?
The New Orleans Saints have started the season 4-0 against the Over/Under and are the only team to do so. They’re topping the projected point totals by 11.6 points per game.
BetMGM had the Saints’ total at an average of 48 points in Weeks 1 and 2 and raised that line to an average of 51.5 in Weeks 3 and 4.
The Buffalo Bills, 3-0-1 against the Over/Under, had an average total of 41 points in the first two weeks of the season with the projection soaring to an average line of 50 in Weeks 3 and 4.
How popular is NFL Over/Under betting?
Bets on NFL point totals make up 25-30% of all bets on NFL games, according to BetMGM. Against the spread bets see about three to four times the action on any given game compared to the total, as the most popular bet made on NFL games.
The Over is almost always the more popular side of the line, and received the majority of bets in 55 of 63 games through four weeks.
BetMGM’s Sportsbook manager Matt Cosgriff had this to say on how the book is adjusting based on the rise in scoring early in the season:
Overs are always a popular bet and the public has been winning at a high rate. We will be giving the totals greater emphasis and expect to set higher numbers going forward to combat this unprecedented scenario.
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