The Los Angeles Lakers look to take a commanding 3-0 lead in the NBA Finals against the Miami Heat in the Orlando Bubble at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Miami snuck in the backdoor (covered the spread) in a Lakers’ 124-114 Game 2 win that was never as close as the score indicates. The deck is really stacked against the Heat, who could be without its leading-scorer in Goran Dragic and All-Star Bam Adebayo in Game 3.
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Jimmy Butler Over 38.5 points, rebounds & assists (-106)
I’m pushing the numbers aside for a second in this handicap to take a drive through narrativeville.
Miami is banged up right now and it goes without saying that the Heat are going to need a Herculean effort from Jimmy Butler if they have any hope of getting a game in this series. Sure the role players need to hit threes and every Heat player will need to do their part at reducing the rebounding margin.
Questions were answered this season about Butler’s place among NBA stars. He has gelled perfectly with this team and he’s got the talent to fill the box score. Butler’s season average for points, rebounds and assists combined is 32.6.
But as the team’s star, it’s important for Butler to take the reins in Game 3. He had a great Game 2—putting up 25 points, 8 rebounds and 13 assists—and since Game 3 production is needed, Game 3 production is what we’ll get from Butler.
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Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 three-pointers (-176)
The volume isn’t and should not be the issue for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s three-pointers made player prop. KCP is leading the Lakers in three-point attempts and is third in minutes played in the Finals. He’ll probably get even more minutes in Game 3 since the other shooting guard Danny Green is playing through a hip injury that forced him to just play 22 minutes in Game 2.
Miami is getting killed in the paint through two games and judging by the injury report it probably won’t get much better in Game 3. As much as 2020 NBA is about the three-ball, the Heat cannot just get bullied and hope this series continues so I figure they’ll be collapsing inside when the ball is in the point.
Anthony Davis has an offensive rating of 144, LeBron James is at 139 and most of their damage has been done on the interior. To compensate the Heat have been playing a lot of zone and zone defense’s biggest flaw is being to able to effectively guard three-point shots.
If Miami uses a zone in Game 3 and Green is hampered with a hip issue, expect KCP to easily clear two threes and I like it up to 2.5 threes made if BetMGM lists a line at plus-money.
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