Game 1 of the NL Wild Card series between the Cincinnati Reds (31-29 regular season) and Atlanta Braves (35-25) starts Wednesday at Truist Park at 12:08 p.m. ET (on ESPN). Below, we analyze the Reds-Braves MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Reds at Braves: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Trevor Bauer vs. LHP Max Fried
Bauer: 5-4 with a 1.73 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 12.3 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 73 IP over 11 GS.
- Last start (Sept. 23): Win, 6-1, with 8 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 12 K and 1 BB against the Milwaukee Brewers.
- 2020 road splits: 4-1 its a 1.32 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 12.2 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 in 34 IP over 5 starts.
- Current Braves lineup vs. Bauer: .265/.316/.515 with 2 HR in 68 batters faced.
Fried: 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 56 IP over 11 starts.
- Last start (Sept. 23): No-decision with 1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 K and 0 BB in a 9-4 Braves win against the Miami Marlins. Fried was pulled after one inning after tweaking his ankle but is good to go Wednesday.
- 2020 home splits: 4-0 with a 2.73 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 7.3 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 29 2/3 IP over 6 GS.
- Wednesday will be Fried’s first postseason start but he did make bullpen appearances for the Braves in the 2018 and 2019 playoffs.
- Postseason splits: 0-0 with a 7.11 ERA, 6 H, 5 ER, 7 K and 4 BB in 6 1/3 IP over 8 games.
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Reds at Braves: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Reds
- OF Brian Goodwin (groin) probable
Braves
- OF Ronald Acuna Jr. (wrist) probable
- 3B Austin Riley (quadriceps) probable
- RP Chris Martin (groin) probable
Reds at Braves: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:55 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Braves 4, Reds 2
Money line (ML)
The NL East champion BRAVES (-129) are modest favorites hosting the wild-card Reds (+115). This is Atlanta’s third straight playoff appearance via division crown but the Braves have been bounced in the NLDS each of the past two seasons.
Cincinnati is making its first playoff appearance since 2013, thanks to an 11-3 run in the final 14 games of the season, after struggling out the gate. The Reds have the third-lowest batting average and OBP against lefties. Against righties, Atlanta is second in batting average, first in OBP and OPS in MLB.
Bauer is one of the top pitching stars in MLB and is putting up the numbers to back up his popularity, but Fried isn’t getting enough Cy Young love. He’s the ace of a Braves team that pretty much coasted to a division title and has pitched against better competition.
Fried’s home stats aren’t as impressive as his road numbers because he started against the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, and Toronto Blue Jays (all AL playoff teams) at home. His winning percentage in those games is 100%. Bauer’s winning road record is due to only playing one above-.500 team in the Chicago Cubs and their below-average lineup.
Let’s side with the market and TAKE BRAVES (-129). New to sports betting? A $129 bet on the Braves (-129) pays a $100 profit if Atlanta beats Cincinnati.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
As much as I love the value of the Braves -1.5 (+165), I am going to PASS ON THE RUN LINE. Atlanta is only 12-18 on the run line at home and the Reds +1.5 (-189) are one of the hottest teams in baseball entering the playoffs.
Over/Under (O/U)
I lean UNDER 7.5 (-110) because scoring typically tightens up in the playoffs and three of the four playoff games Tuesday went Under the total. The Reds have the most Unders as an away team; however, Atlanta played in the second-highest percentage of Overs (32-23-5).
A “lean” is not necessarily a bet. Proceed at your own caution.
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