Fantasy football free-agent forecast: Week 4

Despite fewer injuries in Week 3, several fantasy waiver wire options present themselves as we approach the fourth weekend of football.

Free-agent recommendations refer to 12-team league formats, unless specifically stated. FAAB $ amounts are based on a $100 budget.

Bye weeks: none

Fantasy football waiver wire targets

Quarterbacks

1-week plug & play

Ryan Fitzpatrick vs. Seattle Seahawks

No team has permitted more yards through three weeks than the Seahawks, and injuries to defensive backs Quinton Dunbar, Neiko Thorpe and now star Jamal Adams makes this a matchup in which Fitz can work his magic. The journeyman has been his typically erratic self in 2020, but his weaponry is finally coming around. Preston Williams is only getting healthier after tearing his ACL last year, DeVante Parker (hamstring) is nearing 100 percent, and wideout Isaiah Ford has stepped up of late. TE Mike Gesicki is finding his groove in a new offense, too. If nothing else, while it may include some interceptions, Fitzpatrick could be forced to play keep-up with Russell Wilson and amass serious yardage to go with a few TDs.

Availability: 56%
FAAB:
$1-2

WATCH LIST

Nick Foles, Chicago Bears

At the time of this writing, Matt Nagy has not officially named Foles the starter for Week 4, but it’s pretty much a foregone conclusion with the dichotomous difference in play between Foles and Mitchell Trubisky. Chicago has enough weapons to keep Foles relevant, should he stay healthy, but the upcoming matchup will be the weather vane. Indianapolis has a quality defense with a strong, proven system. Foles has floundered more than enough as a starter to believe last week’s relief appearance is just who he is as a player — great in a pinch, rarely reliable as the entrenched signal caller. After Indy, Tampa Bay comes to town and is another tough opponent — watch how he performs from a afar for at least Week 4 prior to investing.

Availability: 67%

Running Backs

Priority Free Agent

Carlos Hyde, Seattle Seahawks

Starter Chris Carson suffered what is being described as an ankle sprain in Week 3 and will be week-to-week, making Hyde a must-own in fantasy. He’s currently rostered in nearly two-thirds of leagues polled, but he has a pair of favorable matchups prior to a Week 6 bye. It should be presumed we’ll see Carson in Week 7 at Arizona. Week 4 is a trip to Miami, and the Minnesota Vikings come to town in Week 5. Neither defense has found its way just yet against RBs.

Availability: 38%
FAAB:
$4-6

1-week plug & play/grab & stash

Jeff Wilson Jr., San Francisco 49ers

It wasn’t pretty, but Wilson found the end zone twice in Week 3 after the 49ers lost Raheem Mostert (knee) and Tevin Coleman (knee) in the second game of 2020. The duo of Wilson and Jerick McKinnon will share the chores for now, and both backs get utilized interchangeably in this system. Wilson ran for only 15 yards on 12 carries and found the end zone, but his 3-54-1 line in the passing game gives hope. His value is directly tied to Mostert and Coleman’s health. The latter is on IR and will be eligible to return in three weeks. Mostert’s injury was described as minor. Wilson should be added for the short term and is a fringe play vs. Philly in Week 4 and much more appealing in Week 5, should the Niners need him still at that point.

Availability: 57%
FAAB:
$3-4

1-week plug & play

Rex Burkhead, New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs

J.J. Taylor saw 11 carries in Week 3, and Sony Michel ran wild on his nine totes, but it was Burkhead who was the most productive back, find the end zone thrice. Now, the major caveat here is what happens with James White, whose status is unclear as he tends to personal matters after a car accident killed his father and left his mother seriously injured. Burkhead’s 10 targets in Week 3 cannot be ignored in the event White is absent once again, because KC’s offense is poised to force the Pats into a pass-heavy script.

Availability: 62%
FAAB:
$2-3

Wide Receivers

Priority Free Agent

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings

The first-round rookie hauled in a 71-yard catch-and-run TD after blown coverage on a play-action pass from Kirk Cousins. Working predominantly from the slot, Jefferson finished with seven grabs for 175 yards and said score. He was highly productive in a pro-style offense at LSU last year, so there’s huge potential playing for a team with such a porous defense. Explosive play is just what Minnesota needs, even if it comes from poor coverage, but removing that score leaves Jefferson with a noteworthy line of 6-104-0. He should be given an add in all formats, but gamers must be patient in understanding his production could be be all over the place. Houston has been pretty good vs. WRs in the first three games, largely because its run defense is awful, but drool-inducing matchups with Seattle and Atlanta are on the docket before the Week 7 bye.

Availability: 70%
FAAB:
$6-8

1-week plug & play/grab & stash

Cole Beasley, Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders

Shaking off hip and thumb issues entering Week 3, Beasley capitalized on a fine slot matchup and a first-half injury suffered by John Brown (calf). The Raiders present a reasonable matchup for gamers looking to fill a void in PPR scoring, and Beasley clearly has Josh Allen’s eye, dating back to last year. In Week 5, when bye weeks resume, the Bills face Tennessee, a defense that had no answer for Minnesota rookie slot receiver Justin Jefferson in Week 3. Depending on the severity of Brown’s injury, Beasley may stick around several weeks with matchups vs. KC and the New York Jets running through Week 7.

Availability: 48%
FAAB:
$2-3

Greg Ward, Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers

This one may turn into a longer stay than the one-week matchup vs. the Niners. San Fran could be without its top three cornerbacks for this one, but opportunities for Ward to see more work persist on Philadelphia’s side. The Eagles will be without WR Jalen Reagor (thumb) and likely TE Dallas Goedert (ankle), who is expected to miss some time. Alshon Jeffery may not be ready quite yet, and DeSean Jackson (hamstring) exited last week with an injury of his own. All of that helped lead to Ward — a late-season savior of sorts for the Eagles — to snare eight of his 11 targets, good for 72 yards and a score. After this reasonable matchup, the Steelers and Ravens are on the schedule, which may seem daunting, but someone has to catch the ball. Ward’s roster stay probably doesn’t live longer than two weeks for most situations, unless bye weeks force gamers into desperation mode.

Availability: 83%
FAAB:
$2-3

Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The towering rookie exploited the Philadelphia defense after wrestling the starting lineup away from John Ross, who ended up a healthy scratch in Week 3. Higgins caught five of his nine targets from fellow rookie Joe Burrow, resulting in 40 yards and a pair of scores. Overall, Jacksonville hasn’t been all that good of a matchup for receivers, but allowing a TD per game to the position thus far is encouraging for a wideout whose game will revolve around finding paydirt. And, in fairness, the level of WR competition vs. the Jags has been suspect so far. Higgins has a pair of tough opponents (BAL, IND) after this one, so he’s probably a bench candidate for a few weeks, regardless of how he plays in Week 4.

Availability: 48%
FAAB:
$2-3

Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Buffalo Bills

Even though Renfrow and LA Rams receiver Cooper Kupp couldn’t be much different in style of play and physique, it’s worth noting Kupp owned the Bills out of the slot in Week 3. The Jets’ Jamison Crowder — much closer in nature to Renfrow — did the same in Week 1. Renfrow will once again be the likely leading receiver for Derek Carr if Buffalo handles TE Darren Waller like New England did in Week 3. In addition, the Raiders may be without WRs Henry Ruggs (knee, hamstring) and Bryan Edwards (ankle). Another TD from Renfrow may be asking too much of him, but the second-year wideout has a good chance of posting double-digit PPR stats without scoring. The Chiefs are ahead after the Bills, and Renfrow could be useful in that one, too, prior to Vegas’ bye.

Availability: 48%
FAAB:
$2-3

1-week plug & play

Brandon Powell, Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers

How desperate are you feeling? The Falcons could be without two of its top three receivers in Week 4. Julio Jones (hamstring) was inactive in Week 3, and that game saw Russell Gage (concussion) go down. He is in jeopardy of having to sit out vs. the Pack. Green Bay’s offense is clicking, and it will be all hands on deck for the battered Falcons after blowing late leads in consecutive weeks. Dallas is the only team to have surrendered more receiving scores to WRs through three games in 2020, and Powell has a shot at relevance after seeing four targets in Week 3.

Availability: 99%
FAAB:
$0-1

Tight Ends

1-week plug & play

Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons

The fourth-year pro has finally earned a chance to show his skills, and it has resulted in a touchdown each of the past two weeks. He has eight total targets, going for 75 yards on his seven grabs, and Tonyan now draws the second-best fantasy matchup of Week 4 for his position. No team has given up more touchdowns than Atlanta when facing tight ends, and if WR Davante Adams (hamstring) isn’t ready, Aaron Rodgers will have to look elsewhere. Tonyan is a brilliant gamble for a touchdown in Week 4. Afterward, the Packers go on bye and return to a rocky schedule for tight ends. Even with another strong showing by Tonyan, don’t be afraid to drop him after Week 4.

Availability: 84%
FAAB:
$1-2

grab & stash

Jimmy Graham, Chicago Bears

The seasoned veteran still can find the end zone with the right matchup, and he should have four total TDs in 2020, if not for coming up just shy a few weeks back. At any rate, the upcoming tilt with Indianapolis isn’t one of those “right” matchups. Graham’s 10 targets in Week 3 may seem enticing, but Chicago was in catch-up mode vs. a defense that is horrendous against the position. In a pinch, Graham can be deployed for a flier TD gamble, but it really shouldn’t be this week. Add him for depth at this time.

Availability: 58%
FAAB: $0-1

Kickers

1-Week Plug & Play

Ryan Succop, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Chargers

LA’s defense is just good enough to stymie opponents in the Chargers’ territory. Only Minnesota has granted more field goal attempts to the position than the Bolts’ 11 faced, and only three PATs against ranks as the second fewest entering Monday night’s game between Baltimore (fewest) and KC. Tampa Bay’s inconsistent running game and work-in-progress passing attack should struggle to consistently score touchdowns vs. this defense, especially if Chris Godwin (hamstring) sits again.

Availability: 87%
FAAB:
$0-1

Ka’imi Fairbairn, Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings

Going back to the well once again … it was mostly dry in Week 3 after recommending Fairbairn vs. the Steelers, but expecting Houston to score three touchdowns wasn’t part of the equation. The Vikings have given up a least a pair of field goal attempts in each game this year, including an insane six last week. It wasn’t so fluky, though, since Indy kicked four of them the prior week. Trust Fairbairn once more. The matchup is an insane 70.6 percent better than the league average for fantasy points allowed.

Availability: 58%
FAAB:
$0-1

Defense/Specials Teams

1-Week Plug & Play

Denver Broncos at New York Jets

Defensive life has been rough without Von Miller and A.J. Bouye, but the Broncos have a chance to right the ship vs. the death spiral that is the 2020 Jets season. Sam Darnold threw a pair of interceptions that went the other direction in Week 3, and there are no weapons to speak of around him right now. Furthermore, it’s a short week for New York to regain some of its injured targets, and we’re approaching the point in which even lowly fantasy defenses, like Denver, need to be considered vs. New York.

Availability: 75%
FAAB:
$0-1

Los Angeles Rams vs. New York Giants

Picking on the New York teams wasn’t the intent, but when your offense cannot make anything happen vs. the visiting, injury-ravaged 49ers, all hope is lost. The Giants were without Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard, sure, but something, anything would have been understandable from Daniel Jones and Co. Anyway, the Rams have five takeaways in the past two games and seven total sacks in three games after not recording one against the Eagles in Week 2. Much like with the Jets, we’re approaching the territory where any fantasy defense with a hint of life is a strong play vs. the G-men.

Availability: 51%
FAAB:
$0-1