ESPN’s Bill Connelly gives win projections for Week 4 SEC matchups

ESPN’s Bill Connelly, creator of the SP+ analytics system, released his game breakdowns for each of the seven SEC matchups.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly, creator of the SP+ analytics system, released his game breakdowns for each of the seven SEC matchups during Saturday’s first day of competition for the conference.

Florida plays Ole Miss and new coach Lane Kiffin to open its season after the SEC shuffled schedules to adjust to a 10-game, conference-only schedule, and the numbers like the Gators to start Year 3 under coach Dan Mullen 1-0.

SP+ projection: Florida by 15.0 (34.2-19.2)
Florida covers if … a new pass-rusher is ready. The Gators return most of last year’s defense but lose rush end Jonathan Greenard, and the inaugural Lane Kiffin Rebels’ offense could be dangerous if Florida can’t get to the QB and get off the field on passing downs.
Ole Miss covers if … its newish secondary beats Florida’s newish receiving corps. Ole Miss returns only three of last year’s top six DBs, while the Gators return two of their top six WRs. No one doubts Florida’s talent, but Ole Miss has an opportunity to render UF inefficient.
Also noteworthy is Connelly’s breakdown of Georgia, who also faces a first-year coach in Arkansas’ Sam Pittman.
The Bulldogs are heavy favorites against the Razorbacks, and here’s what the analytics say.
SP+ projection: Georgia by 27.0 (36.3-9.2)
Georgia covers if … the starting QB is strong. Be it JT Daniels or
D’Wan Mathis, the quarterback of choice might be the most important player in college football this year. Georgia’s defense is going to be absurd, but a disappointing offense has to rebound, and Arkansas could offer it a fast start.
Arkansas covers if … Georgia’s offense isn’t ready. New Hogs defensive coordinator (and former Mizzou head coach) Barry Odom knows Georgia’s personnel well, and if last year’s UGA offense shows up, this could be a slog. It will be an easy Georgia win regardless, but maybe more of the 28-7 variety.
There are still lots of questions about both teams, and the answers to those questions will likely decide the division. But we’ll get our first sample from both in games that shouldn’t be particularly close.
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