The Milwaukee Brewers (27-28) visit the St. Louis Cardinals (27-26) Thursday in the first of a five-game series in Busch Stadium at 8:15 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Brewers-Cardinals MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Brewers at Cardinals: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Corbin Burnes vs. LHP Kwang Hyun Kim
Burnes: 4-0 with a 1.77 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 13.3 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 56 IP over 11 G (8 starts).
- Last start: Win, 5-0, with 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 9 K and 0 BB vs. the Kansas City Royals Saturday.
- Career vs. Cardinals: 1-1 with a 6.19 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 28 K and 7 BB in 16 IP over 6 G (3 starts).
Kim: 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 5.6 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 34 IP over 7 G (6 starts).
- Last start: No-decision with 5 1/3 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 4 K and 1 BB in a 5-4 win at the Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday.
- This is Kim’s rookie season. The 32-year-old played 12 seasons in his native South Korea before coming to the MLB.
- Kim got a no-decision in his only start against Milwaukee on Sept. 14. He allowed zero earned runs, three hits, struck out six batters and walked three in seven innings.
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Brewers at Cardinals: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Brewers
- OF Ben Gamel (quadriceps) out
Brewers at Cardinals: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Cardinals 4, Brewers 2
Money line (ML)
This is essentially a playoff game in the regular season for both teams. The Cardinals (+135) are currently the NL Central’s second-place team and a game ahead of the Brewers (-150) in the NL Central. Milwaukee, which leads the season series 3-2, is a game back of the No. 8 and final seed in the NL playoffs. Both clubs are coming off a Wednesday loss.
Burnes has only allowed one run in his last four starts and that was against the Cardinals on Sept. 14. The only outing he’s pitched less than five innings was in that same game. St. Louis has hit Burnes well in his young career and Kim looked great in his only start against Milwaukee.
It’s a must-win for both teams so I am TAKING CARDINALS (+135) since they are at home and we’re getting plus-money. New to sports betting? A $50 bet on the Cardinals (+135) pays a $67.50 profit if they win.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Let’s get some insurance for our money line play and BET CARDINALS +1.5 (-134) on the run line. Milwaukee has the worst run line record in MLB overall (21-34 RL) and in division games (9-26 RL).
Three of the last six Brewers-Cardinals game have been decided by a run. In a high-intensity game, with each staff’s best starter on the mound going against below-average lineups, there is value on the Cardinals’ run line.
A $134 bet on the Cardinals -1.5 (-134) returns a $100 profit if they win outright or lose by a run.
Over/Under (O/U)
I only lean Under 7.5 (-121) because 98% of the cash wagered in Brewers-Cardinals is on the Under, according to Pregame.com. I’m nervous about the House needing the Over because the House usually wins. The matchup between these two formidable pitchers screams “Under” but it seems too easy to take.
A “lean” is not necessarily a bet. Proceed at your own caution.
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