The NFL’s Week 2 was an abnormal week in an abnormal season. Deservedly, the mass injury carnage dominated the headlines, but in the wagering realm, underdogs won the week, going 9-7 against the spread.
That in itself isn’t noteworthy coming off last season, but it was the way most of the underdogs covered that was odd. In a typical NFL week, roughly 85% of winning teams cover the spread, but only nine of 16 did so in Week 2, making for a strange wagering week.
Despite the underdogs’ winning week, we didn’t fully capitalize here, going 1-2 to fall to 1-5 on the season.
Regroup we must. Here are your Week 3 NFL underdog selections, utilizing the Thursday lines from BetMGM.
NFL underdog best bets: Week 3
San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants +4 (-110)
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 10:10 a.m. ET.
The aforementioned injury carnage has hit the Niners especially hard with QB Jimmy Garoppolo, RBs Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman, TE George Kittle, DE Nick Bosa, CB Richard Sherman and a gaggle of wide receivers going down so far.
Moreover, it’s the second straight Sunday playing on the MetLife Stadium turf, and the 49ers weren’t too keen about it in last week’s 31-13 win over the Jets, suggesting it contributed to some of the injuries.
The Giants, meanwhile, certainly didn’t escape the injury bug’s bite, losing stud RB Saquon Barkley for the season with a torn ACL and starting WR Sterling Shepard for the next few weeks due to a toe injury.
It’s just a bad spot all around for the battered Niners playing an early game in the Eastern Time Zone at a stadium they’d rather not be at.
Take the GIANTS +4 (-110) and the points.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos +6.5 (-110)
QB Tom Brady and the Bucs took strides in a Week 2 rout of the Carolina Panthers at home following a season-opening road loss against the New Orleans Saints.
The Broncos, meanwhile, are a close second to the 49ers in terms of injury misfortune and they’ll be without QB Drew Lock, WR Courtland Sutton, LB Von Miller and top CB A.J. Bouye, among others.
Still, the 0-2 Broncos’ replacement players have stepped up, going 2-0 against the spread in close, down-to-the-wire losses to formidable foes in the Tennessee Titans and Pittsburgh Steelers.
Two other numbers in Denver’s favor:
- The Broncos are 6-2 ATS in their last eight September home games as an underdog.
- Brady is 8-9 all-time vs. Denver – the only team he owns a losing record against – and is 4-7 in Denver, including the postseason.
Look for Brady to get to .500 vs. Denver, but bet on the BRONCOS +6.5 (-110) to cover in another tight loss.
Green Bay Packers +3 (-110) at New Orleans Saints
This reeks of recency bias but if the Saints struggled in containing QB Derek Carr and the Las Vegas Raiders on Monday night, why should they be favored against one of the league’s hottest quarterbacks in Aaron Rodgers and his league-leading 91.7 QBR, rushing leader Aaron Jones (234 yards) and the NFL’s highest-scoring team (85 points)?
Normally, a super-charged Superdome crowd would be in the Saints’ corner, but not in 2020.
On the field, 41-year-old QB Drew Brees has looked decidedly mediocre, with a 68.8 QBR and averaging only 6.9 yards per attempt, and he may be without his top target again in injured wideout Michael Thomas.
Take the PACKERS +3 (-110) and the points, and don’t be afraid to hit the Green Bay moneyline (+140) as well.
Want action on this NFL game? Sign up and bet at BetMGM. If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.
Also see:
- Giants’ Logan Ryan optimistic despite ‘horrible’ 0-2 start (Giants Wire)
- Broncos’ o-line has to do a better job protecting Jeff Driskel (Broncos Wire)
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