The Atlanta Braves (30-22) play the New York Mets (24-28) Sunday in the finale of a three-game set at Citi Field. The first pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Braves-Mets MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Series: Tied 1-1.
Braves at Mets: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Kyle Wright vs. RHP Rick Porcello
Wright: 1-4 with a 7.20 ERA, 2.08 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 and 7.2 BB/9 in 25 IP over 6 starts.
- Last start (Sept. 13): Win, 8-4, 6 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 4 K and 2 BB at the Washington Nationals.
- Career vs. Mets: 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA, 2.88 WHIP, 10 K and 8 BB in 8 IP over 3 games (2 starts).
Porcello: 1-5 with a 6.06 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in 49 IP over 10 starts.
- Last start (Sept. 15): Loss, 4-1, with 6 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 5 K and 2 BB at the Philadelphia Phillies.
- 2020 vs. Braves: 0-2 with a 13.50 ERA, 12 H, 9 ER, 6 K and 6 BB in 6 IP over 2 GS. Atlanta slashed .400/.500/.533 in those two games against Porcello.
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Braves at Mets: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Mets
- RP Dellin Betances (back) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Braves at Mets: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Mets 9, Braves 5
Money line (ML)
The Mets (-118) helped their playoff chances by beating the Braves (+105) 7-2 Saturday. New York sits 1.5 games behind the San Francisco Giants for the final playoff spot in the National League.
Wright takes the mound for Atlanta and he’s struggled in 2020. His only decent start of the season was a 3 1/3 inning no-decision in a win against the Mets on Aug. 2.
Porcello has gotten smacked around in both his starts this season against the Braves. Plus, Atlanta scores the most runs per game, hits for the second-best average and has the top OPS in the majors.
New York’s lineup ranks in the top-10 in many hitting categories and BetMGM listed the Mets as a favorite despite how Porcello has looked against Atlanta this season. The Braves are 1-9 straight up, with a minus-3.1 run margin, in games as a road dog.
TAKE METS (-118).
New to sports betting? A $118 wager on the Mets (-118) returns a $100 profit if New York beats Atlanta.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The starting pitching matchup suggests a slugfest so there is value in METS -1.5 (+165) on an alternate run line. Atlanta is 13-17 on the run line in road games, 2-8 RL as a road dog and 16-20 RL against NL East teams.
Place a smaller wager on this, like a $35 bet on Mets -1.5 (+165) to earn a $57.75 profit.
Over/Under (O/U)
Last night, the total of Braves-Mets fell exactly on the number for a push. Sunday’s projected total of 9.5 (Over and Under both -110) is only a half-run higher but the starting pitching matchup is worse than Saturday’s.
The Braves have cashed the third-most Over tickets in MLB and the Over is 7-1-1 in the Braves’ last nine road games versus a right-handed starter. I LEAN OVER 9.5 (-110) in Braves-Mets.
A “lean” is not necessarily a bet. Proceed at your own caution.
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