The Atlanta Braves (29-21, 1st in NL East) start a three-game weekend series against the New York Mets (23-27, 4th in NL East) at Citi Field Friday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Braves-Mets betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Braves at Mets: Projected starting pitchers
LHP Max Fried vs. LHP Steven Matz
Fried: 6-0, 9 starts, 1.98 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 50 IP
- A breakout star of the condensed 60-game season, Fried has benefited from not allowing a home run through his 9 starts.
- He hasn’t completed 7 innings in a start yet this season, but he also hasn’t allowed more than 3 earned runs in any one appearance.
Matz: 0-4, 6 games (5 starts), 8.63 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 24 IP
- Will pitch his first game since Aug. 29 and make his first start since Aug. 15 after a stint on the injured list.
- Has a career-worst ERA while allowing 3.4 home runs per nine innings.
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Braves at Mets: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Braves
- RP Huascar Ynoa (back) questionable
Mets
- RP Dellin Betances (back) out
Braves at Mets: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Braves 5, Mets 2
Money line (ML)
The BRAVES (-162) are surprisingly affordable on the money line with Fried on the mound. Matz was awful earlier in the season and is returning for his first start in over a month.
The Mets fare much better offensively against left-handed pitchers with a .785 team OPS compared to the Braves’ .689 rate in the split. The Braves have MLB’s third-best bullpen by ERA and will be able to shut things down if Fried shows signs of trouble. The Mets’ relief corps is ninth by ERA.
The Braves lead the season series 5-2.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Braves to win returns a profit of $6.17.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Double down on the BRAVES -1.5 (-106) with the run line and back the visitors to win by 2 or more runs with their ace on the mound. Four of their five wins in the head-to-head season series were decided by margins greater than 2 runs and they’ve scored 10 or more runs twice in the series.
Over/Under (O/U)
Take the UNDER 8.5 (-110) in a quality pitching matchup and with both teams having a reliable bullpen in the top 10 of MLB by ERA. The Braves rank just 24th in MLB by team OPS against left-handed pitching and were held to a single run in two of three games in their last series against the Baltimore Orioles, but they’ll be able to do enough for the win against Matz.
The season series is 3-4 against the Over/Under.
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