The Pittsburgh Pirates (14-30) and Cincinnati Reds (21-26) are slated to play a Monday double-dip (seven-inning games) at Great American Ball Park. The first pitch in Monday’s opener is scheduled for a 4:10 p.m. ET start. We analyze the Pirates-Reds MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Pirates at Reds: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Cody Ponce vs. RHP Trevor Bauer
Ponce is a 26-year-old rookie who has appeared in four games (2 GS) for the Pirates. In 13 innings pitched, the big right-hander has compiled a 3.46 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Bauer owns a fine 1.74 ERA and 0.79 WHIP through eight starts. The 29-year-old veteran has been remarkably consistent, allowing more than 1 ER in just two of those eight outings.
- Faced the Pirates two starts back (Sept. 4) and allowed 1 ER in 6 IP.
- Bauer is coming off a 7 2/3 IP shutout stint against the Cubs in which he walked none while fanning 10.
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Pirates at Reds: Key injuries
(List of injuries around the league)
Pirates
- RP Keone Kala (forearm) out
- OF Anthony Alford (elbow) out
Reds
- OF Nick Senzel (undisclosed) questionable
- OF Jesse Winker (back) questionable
- RP Tyler Thornburg (elbow) out
Pirates at Reds: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.
Moneyline (ML)
Pittsburgh comes in on a four-game losing streak and is a mere 4-12 in series openers. Both offenses struggle mightily on the road (the Pirates’ .587 road OPS ranks last in MLB), but Cincinnati stakes its pitchers to a fighting chance at home with an above-average .788 OPS.
Both bullpens are middle-third units comparative to the league, but you wouldn’t know it from the Reds’ 5.06 bullpen ERA. Cincinnati has been hurt in scoring-position situations and by a high home run rate on fly balls (despite being a top-10 unit in avoiding hard contact).
Nick Senzel may return Monday, and that’s a boon for the Cincinnati side. These same two starters tangled in an eventual 4-3 Pittsburgh win on Sept. 4. The price on Bauer was some 24 cents cheaper then. Still, a REDS -239 tag is not unreasonable.
New to sports betting? A winning $239 bet on Cincinnati would return a profit of $100.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Betting the under-performing and inconsistent Reds on the run line every game would have you down 11 units on the season. The seven-inning game makes the REDS -1.5 (-115), but again the price is a fair one.
Over/Under (O/U)
I slightly lean OVER 6 (-110).
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