The Atlanta Braves (26-18) look for a third straight win when they take on the Washington Nationals (16-26) Friday. First pitch is set for 6:05 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. We analyze the Braves-Nationals betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Braves at Nationals: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Josh Tomlin vs. RHP Erick Fedde
Tomlin’s first eight appearances this season were out of the bullpen, but this will be his fifth straight outing in a starting role. Overall, he owns a 3.77 ERA and career-high 8.2 K/9.
- The sample is small, but in his four starts, Tomlin has surrendered 10 earned runs and four homers in 17 1/3 innings, along with just 10 strikeouts (5 2/3 K/9).
- His two best starts to this point have come against this same Washington team. In those two outings, he pitched a total of 10 innings, while allowing three earned runs and punching out four batters.
Fedde has been absolutely brutal this season. In his 32 1/3 innings of work, he has compiled a 5.29 ERA, while striking out just 12 batters and dishing out 15 free passes.
- His most recent start was also against the Braves, and he allowed four earned runs (and three homers) in 3 2/3 innings, with a 2:4 K:BB.
- In 26 career appearances (18 starts) at Nationals Park, Fedde has posted a 6.08 ERA, along with an awful 1.3 K:BB.
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Braves at Nationals: Key injuries
Get the latest injury news here.
Braves
- C Tyler Flowers (triceps) questionable
Nationals
- 2B Howie Kendrick (hamstring) out
- SS Luis Garcia (heel) questionable
- 2B Starlin Castro (wrist) out
- RP Sean Doolittle (upper body) questionable
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Braves at Nationals: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:20 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Braves 8, Nationals 6
Moneyline (ML)
- Braves (-150)
- Nationals (+135)
Fedde’s 5.29 ERA is ugly, and the skills have been even worse. He has walked more batters than he has struck out, and his 7.14 FIP is third-highest among all pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched.
The Braves, who lead the league in wRC+ vs right-handed pitching, roughed Fedde up just last week and should have similar success against him Friday night. Side with the BRAVES (-150), as their offense should continue to roll.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
- Braves -1.5 (-106)
- Nationals +1.5 (-115)
Both starting pitchers are likely to have a tough time today, but the Braves bring the stronger offense into the game, as they lead the league in runs per game. They also have the edge in the bullpen, as the ERA of the Atlanta relievers is 3.31 (fourth-lowest in the league) compared to Washington’s 4.54 mark. Look for the BRAVES -1.5 (-106) to win by multiple runs.
Over/Under (O/U)
- Over 10.5 (-110)
- Under 10.5 (-110)
These teams have met seven times this season, and just once have they combined for fewer than 13 runs, and that was a seven-inning game. With Tomlin and Fedde squaring off, there should be plenty of fireworks in this one as well.
The OVER 10.5 (-110) looks like an excellent value, so take advantage of it before the total moves up.
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