Welcome back to another season of NFL underdog picks, and it’s, of course, already a season unlike any other.
The 2019 campaign was a bit of an anomaly in its own right, at least when it came to underdogs with bite as they posted a 133-113-10 (.539) record against the spread for their best single-season showing since 2006 (140-109-5, .561), according to ProFootballReference.com.
We took advantage in this space, finishing with a 30-21 (.588) ATS record.
So, if we can count on anything in 2020, count on the oddsmakers making an adjustment. Following 2006’s big underdog season, 2007’s dogs managed only a 118-128-8 (.480) mark ATS.
Coupled with home-field advantage being negated somewhat by the diminished stadium crowds due to COVID-19 attendance restrictions, expect road underdogs to be getting slightly fewer points on average than they did a season ago.
So that sets the table as we select our first three underdogs of the 2020 season.
Here goes …
NFL underdog best bets: Week 1
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Carolina Panthers (+3) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
We’ve heard all offseason how the teams that underwent massive staff/personnel changes will open at a distinct disadvantage without the usual offseason/preseason, and few franchises have undergone more upheaval than Carolina with a new head coach, quarterback and coordinators following a 5-11 finish in 2019.
But does that mean we’re eager to lay 3 points with a Raiders team coming off a 7-9 season and traveling cross country to play in an early time slot?
Quite the opposite, actually.
In this case, look for the Panthers’ lack of continuity to be a benefit here as the Silver & Black enter the game blind, not knowing what to expect from former Baylor coach Matt Rhule and Co. New Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater is hardly a slouch, either, owning a 22-12 career record as a starter. Pounce on the Panthers +3 (-110).
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Cleveland Browns (+7.5) at Baltimore Ravens
This is basically a regression-to-the-mean play on two franchises that figure to trend in opposite directions in 2020.
QB Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, of course, are coming off a historically successful 14-2 campaign, but the very definition of historic means things don’t simply roll over from year to year and the Baltimore Birds are due to regress.
The Browns, meanwhile, were one of 2020’s disappointments at 6-10, but with new head coach Kevin Stefanski at the helm, there’s a definite post-hype-sleeper vibe in the air in Cleveland.
In Week 4 last season, the Browns rolled into Baltimore and handed the Ravens a 40-25 defeat – one of two regular-season setbacks. And while we don’t quite see an outright Browns win Sunday, it’s not hard to envision Cleveland (+7.5, -110) taking the hosts to the wire in an empty M&T Bank Stadium and covering the touchdown-plus spread.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5) at New Orleans Saints
There will be another empty stadium Sunday in the Big Easy for Week 1’s top game, and that will be a huge disadvantage for the host Saints.
While New Orleans owns the continuity edge with QB Tom Brady taking his first snaps with the Bucs, the Saints have been notoriously slow starters in recent seasons with a 1-11 ATS record in Weeks 1 and 2, including a 0-6 mark at home, since 2014.
Grab the Bucs +3.5 (-110) and the points, and don’t hesitate to put a little something on the Tampa moneyline (+150) as well.
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