Yes, it’s pretty unbelievable, but we are just hours away from actual NFL football in Week 1 of the 2020 season, so it’s time once again for our weekly look at the point spreads in order to help you win some money.
Last year, Steven Ruiz went 122-111 in the regular season, and Charles Curtis went 123-124-1.
We now go to each of them for comments before their picks.
Charles: If you’ve read this column for the past few years, you know the drill: ignore me, and bet on Steven’s picks. But we’re entering a season full of unknowns … will that change everything and make it A LOT harder to pick?
Steven: Yeah, I’m not nearly as confident in my picks this season as Charles is — especially early on. My real advice would be to stay away from most of these games. With that said, let’s make some picks…
(All bets courtesy of BetMGM)
Texans at Chiefs (-9.5)
Charles: Texans
One theme you’ll see throughout my picks this week is how the lack of fans might change home-field advantage. And in this case, it should tighten up this spread even though I don’t think the Texans are going to be that good this year. But I think Deshaun Watson is enough to cover here.
Steven: Chiefs
Andy Reid has had months to draw up plays and design a scheme specifically for this Texans defense. Meanwhile, Bill O’Brien spent the offseason making things more difficult for his quarterback. Laying 9.5 points with Watson on the other sideline is tough, but it’s a bit easier with Patrick Mahomes on your side.
Jets at Bills (-6.5)
Charles: Bills
The Jets only won seven games last year because their schedule was easy. I expect them to go back to being the usual Jets, particularly in this game.
Steven: Jets
The spread is just a bit too fat for my liking. The Bills should win this one but Gregg Williams defense will make it close — just like last year’s opener between these teams.
Eagles at Washington (+5.5)
Charles: Washington
The WFT defense is underrated, and I’m not so sure Darius Slay turns the Eagles’ secondary into an All-Pro unit. Couple that with Philly O-line concerns, and I’ve got to take the points.
Steven: Washington
I’m with Charles here. The Philly offensive line looks rough, which is a bit of an issue against one of the deepest defensive lines in the league. The Eagles should win this one but Dwayne Haskins will do just enough to cover.
Seahawks at Falcons (+2.5)
Charles: Seahawks
If there were fans in the stands, I might feel differently (and this spread would be different, too). So I’ll take Seattle on the road and hope Mr. Unlimited is unleashed to match with Matty Ice.
Steven: Seahawks
Seattle is making the dreaded cross-country trip to play an early game, but they are, by far, the better team and I just don’t trust Dirk Koetter against what should be an improved Seahawks defense.
Dolphins at Patriots (-6.5)
Charles: Dolphins
I have this rule about not betting against Bill Belichick. That is true … EXCEPT in 2020. I think the Fins are good enough to cover after improving a bunch in the offseason.
Steven: Patriots
If Bill Belichick had a hard time slowing down Cam Newton, I’d have to imagine it won’t be any easier for his protege, Brian Flores. And that Dolphins defense better play well, because I’m having a hard time seeing its offense have a lot of success in this one.
Packers at Vikings (-2.5)
Charles: Vikings
The Packers feel overrated to me, and the Vikes’ defense will do enough to contain their running game. So I’ll bet against Aaron Rodgers.
Steven: Vikings
Ditto what Charles said: The Packers are a bit over-valued. I have a hard time picking Kirk Cousins over Aaron Rodgers, but at least it’s not a primetime game, right?
Colts at Jaguars (+7.5)
Charles: Colts
A statement game from an Indy team that should be really, really good this year. Wouldn’t be surprised if Philip Rivers and Co. put up 45 points.
Steven: Colts
Philip Rivers kills this kind of defense. The Jags will play a lot of conservatives zone coverages, and the old Colts quarterback will gladly take those open throws underneath.
Bears at Lions (-3)
Charles: Lions
The line is right where it should be, but I’ll buy in on the Lions’ D keeping Mitchell Trubisky from doing much of anything (I know, I know, you have jokes about how that isn’t hard).
Steven: Lions
I’m not all that high on this Detroit team, but I’m much lower on the Bears, who could be without Robert Quinn on Sunday. Khalil Mack was limited at practice, too. If those two aren’t at 100%, this is close to a lock for me give the mismatch at quarterback.
Browns at Ravens (-7.5)
Charles: Ravens
The Browns could be better this year, but not against that defense and certainly not against Lamar Jackson. Ravens by 10.
Steven: Ravens
I typed and deleted both teams about 15 times, so I really don’t have good advice here. The Browns are good enough to keep it relatively close, but I’ll go with a late score pushing the Ravens to a two-score win.
Raiders at Panthers (+3.5)
Charles: Raiders
Oof, that Panthers defense is going to be all kinds of awful. Josh Jacobs will run for 150 yards and Las Vegas gets the win in a shootout.
Steven: Raiders
I’m going to have to see Phil Snow’s defense in action before I have enough faith in this Panthers team. I would not be surprised if the offense puts up points and covers, but, right now, I’m skeptical.
Chargers at Bengals (+3)
Charles: Chargers
I do NOT get this spread at all. The Chargers defense will miss Derwin James, but I don’t see Joe Burrow breaking out in his first game. On the other side of the ball, I think the Chargers will run all day and win by more than three.
Steven: Chargers
I’m tempted to take those points with the Chargers going on the road, but I can’t have faith in a rookie receiver behind a bad offensive line against that Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram.
Buccaneers at Saints (-3.5)
Charles: Saints
Tom Brady is an underdog for the first time in 74 games. SEVENTY-FOUR!!
Tom Brady has been favored in 74 straight regular-season games, the longest streak in the Super Bowl era, per @ESPNStatsInfo.
He will be an underdog on Sunday for the first time since Week 2 of the 2015 season (at Bills).
Current Week 1 line: Bucs +3.5
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) September 7, 2020
And yes, I’ll bet against him. The Saints are the team to beat in the NFC and the Bucs might need a game or two to jell.
Steven: Saints
I’m guessing that continuity will be a huge benefit for teams early in this weird season. The Saints have it; the Bucs do not. There will be some growing pains for Brady and Bruce Arians early.
Cardinals at 49ers (-7)
Charles: Cardinals
I know the Cards’ defense is going to be bad this year, but I want to think Year 2 of Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury’s offense will be even better, and I just can’t help but think Arizona can at least cover here.
Steven: Cardinals
Both Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel were absent for Wednesday’s practice. If those two are limited, this 49ers receiving corps could be even more of an issue that we already expect it to be. And, remember: This Cardinals offense did not have a problem putting points against San Francisco’s defense … and that was without DeAndre Hopkins.
Cowboys at Rams (+3)
Charles: Cowboys
Dak Prescott > Jared Goff, Cowboys D > Rams D. Seems pretty clear-cut to me.
Steven: Cowboys
That Rams offensive line remains a mess, and while giving three points on the road is difficult, the talent disparity is just too big.
Steelers at Giants (+5.5)
Charles: Steelers
I have zero faith in the Giants’ defense and all the faith in Ben Roethlisberger putting a lot of points on the board against them.
Steven: Steelers
This game will either be a low-scoring snoozefest or a big blowout for Pittsburgh. Either way, the Steelers are covering.
Titans at Broncos (+2)
Charles: Broncos
Losing Von Miller is big, but I could see Denver eking out a win at home for some reason.
Steven: Broncos
That reason, Charles, is the Broncos’ record at home early in the season. I think that will be even more of a factor this season, where players didn’t get those preseason reps. The Titans could be gassed by halftime.
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