The Cincinnati Reds (16-21) start a four-game weekend set against the Pittsburgh Pirates (11-24) with a Friday doubleheader. First pitch of Game 1 at PNC Park will be served up at 4:05 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Reds-Pirates MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Reds at Pirates: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Luis Castillo vs. LHP Steven Brault
Castillo: 0-5, 4.10 ERA, 1.473 WHIP, 12.5 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 37 1/3 IP, 7 starts
- The Reds’ de facto ace of last season has taken a large step back after posting a 3.40 ERA in 2019. He is striking out more batters but allowing three more hits per nine innings.
- He gave up three home runs and four total earned runs over five innings against the Chicago Cubs his last time out and took the loss in his third straight outing.
Brault: 0-1, 4.00 ERA, 1.444 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, 6.0 BB/9, 18 IP, 7 games (6 starts)
- Brault’s stat line certainly doesn’t look like a pitcher headed into his eighth appearance of the season. He has completed five innings just once and was lifted after three frames in each of his last two starts.
- He hasn’t allowed a home run on the season but choosing to walk batters instead isn’t a successful long-term strategy.
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Reds at Pirates: Key injuries
(Get the latest injury news here.)
Reds
- OF Nick Senzel (undisclosed) out
Pirates
- RP Keone Kela (forearm) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Reds at Pirates: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:15 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Reds 5, Pirates 3
Moneyline (ML)
The REDS (-223) are heavy favorites in the opener of the twin bill. It’s a steep price to pay but they have such a lopsided advantage in the starting pitching matchup it’s well worth chasing. Both teams won Thursday, but the Pirates (+195) had lost five of their previous six games while the Reds were 4-4 since Aug. 27.
Back Castillo and the REDS (-223) without a whole lot of risk.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Proper value lies on the REDS’ -1.5 (+110) run line. Should they win by 2 or more runs, a $10 bet would return a profit of $11.
Cincinnati won 8-1 a few weeks ago in the second of a two-game set at Great American Ball Park.
Over/Under (O/U)
Even in just a 7-inning game, there’ll be enough runs scored for the OVER 6 (-110) to hit with relative ease. Brault hasn’t been good this season and there’s even more regression in store without a home run allowed in 2020.
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