The 49ers’ backfield is a nightmare for fantasy football players. Last season they had three players over 120 rushing attempts, and Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman tied for the team lead with 137 attempts. Trying to decipher who would be the lead back on a week-to-week basis was something of a fool’s errand, but this season it should be a little more clear cut.
Mostert is in line to be the 49ers’ top back, and the 2020 fantasy projections on The Huddle reflect it. He’s the first of three backs in the top 70, along with Coleman and Jerick McKinnon. Here’s what The Huddle had to say about San Francisco’s out-of-nowhere star from last season:
He oddly has minimal use as a receiver though he did that as well in college. He famously ran for 220 yards and four TDs in the Conference Championship win over the Packers. SF uses a committee backfield and Mostert is not going to turn into a 300-carry RB despite his gaudy averages. But the 49ers love to run the ball and Mostert is clearly the most talented back on the roster.
That receiving note is what’s keeping Mostert from being a true No. 1 back and a sought-after fantasy option. While he churned out an impressive 772 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns in his 137 carries, he was a bit of a one-dimensional player for San Francisco. Mostert isn’t a great pass blocker, and he’s not the kind of player who thrives while split out wide and running routes. His 14 receptions and 180 receiving yards aren’t bad, but 152 of those yards came after the catch, meaning a lot of his work in the passing game came near the line of scrimmage.
The 49ers’ offense thrives on unpredictability and going off trend. A one-dimensional running back keeps San Francisco from doing that in some cases.
While Mostert might be one-dimensional, he is dominant at that one aspect. His rushing numbers in a 49ers uniform are remarkable. Since Kyle Shanahan arrived in 2017, Mostert has 177 carries. He’s averaging 6.0 yards per attempt and scored nine touchdowns on that relatively light workload. As a decisive runner with home-run speed, Mostert is a perfect fit for Shanahan’s run game. There’s no reason to believe an uptick in workload as a runner would lead to a dip in effectiveness.
Mostert’s red-hot final six games last year extrapolate out over 16 games to 187 carries, 1,131 rushing yards, 19 rushing touchdowns, 19 receptions, 243 receiving yards and three touchdowns through the air.
The Huddle projects Mostert to come up short of those marks. They have him at 1,040 rushing yards, eight rushing touchdowns, 24 receptions, 180 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown. If he gets 180 carries, he could pretty easily hit those yardage and TD marks. If he hauls in 24 catches — he may see an uptick in yards and touchdowns through the air.
It’s always going to be a little bit of a gamble with members of the 49ers’ backfield, but this season Mostert should be the most consistently productive of whatever group they wind up utilizing.
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