Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets odds, picks and best bets

The Utah Jazz meet the Denver Nuggets in Game 7 of their Western Conference Quarterfinals series Tuesday. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET in the Orlando bubble. We analyze the Jazz-Nuggets NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.

Jazz vs. Nuggets: Key injuries

Jazz

C Ed Davis (knee) out
SF Bojan Bogdanovic (wrist) out

Nuggets

SG Will Barton (knee) out

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Jazz vs. Nuggets: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Nuggets 109, Jazz 103

Moneyline (ML)

The shootout between Nuggets PG Jamal Murray and Jazz SG Donovan Mitchell has been the best show of the bubble. They are both averaging over 30 points per game and are shooting 50-plus percent from the field and deep and over 90% from the foul line.

Denver’s supporting cast is more reliable. Heck, before Murray’s first-round explosion, most of the NBA community consider the Nuggets (-115) to be C Nikola Jokic’s team. Denver has six rotation players/starters that are shooting 40-plus from behind the arc.

Also, let’s not forget Denver was the favorite heading into the series as a 3-seed. We cannot think about the previous 3-1 deficit and, like the players, have to focus on just this game. BET DENVER (-115) to advance to the second round.

New to sports betting? A $115 wager on the Nuggets (-115) earns a $100 profit if Denver beats Utah (-106).

Line/Against the Spread (ATS)

There is no point in betting a line this small when we are taking the moneyline. PASS ON THE SPREAD; however, there are some ATS notes to reinforce our moneyline pick.

The Nuggets are a better ATS team in games projected to be close (1-2.5-point line as either the favorite or underdog). Denver is 12-8 ATS in those situations whereas Utah is 7-10 ATS. Also, the Jazz are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings.

Also see:

Over/Under (O/U)

All the betting trends point toward this game going Over the projected point total of 217.5. The Over is 6-1 in the last 7 contests and 6-1 in the Nuggets’ last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record.

A majority of the scoring output is from insanely hot shooting that isn’t sustainable game in, game out. These teams are bombing 3-pointers and if either or both go cold the Under could come in easily.

Furthermore, the nerves of Game 7 could come into play here (although it’s less of a factor with no in-arena attendance) and both team are ranked bottom-10 in pace of play. I’d slightly “LEAN” UNDER 217. 5 (-110).

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