The Pittsburgh Pirates (9-19) and Milwaukee Brewers (13-17) begin a four-game set at Miller Park Friday. The first pitch on Jackie Robinson Day is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. ET. We analyze the Pirates-Brewers betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Pirates at Brewers: Projected starting pitchers
LHP Derek Holland vs. RHP Corbin Burnes
Holland: 1-1, 6.17 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 23 K, 9 BB, 23 1/3 IP, 4 starts, one relief appearance
- On his fourth team since the start of 2017, Holland’s career continues to spiral downhill since his earlier days with the Texas Rangers. He enters Friday with a career-worst 2.7 HR/9.
- Earned the win last time out while holding these Brewers to a single earned run over five innings in his home park.
Burnes: 0-0, 3.42 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 36 K, 16 BB, 26 1/3 IP, 3 starts, 3 relief appearances
- Pitched 5-plus innings in each of his last two starts and in one relief appearance earlier this month.
- Hasn’t factored into a decision, but the Brewers have lost each of the six games in which he appeared.
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Pirates at Brewers: Key injuries
Get the latest injury news here.
Pirates
- 3B Colin Moran (concussion) out
Brewers
- RP Corey Knebel (hamstring) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Pirates at Brewers: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:05 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Brewers 7, Pirates 3
Moneyline (ML)
The BREWERS (-200) are convincing favorites for plenty of good reasons, despite losing their last two games against a Cincinnati Reds team much better than their current opponent. The Pirates (+175) just won two in a row against the St. Louis Cardinals but previously had back-to-back losses against the Chicago White Sox.
Burnes gives Milwaukee a sizable advantage in the starting pitching matchup, and the Brewers may have an even greater edge in the bullpen battle. The Brewers rank 10th in baseball with a team OPS of .775 against right-handed pitching. The Pirates are dead-last with a .567 mark against righties.
The Brewers are worth the juice Friday with Burnes in prime position to get his first win of the season.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Brewers to win outright returns a profit of $5.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Hammer the BREWERS -1.5 (+100) at even-money on the run line, via which they’ll need to win by just two or more runs. Milwaukee is 10-20 ATS this season and just 2-4 straight up against the Pirates, but they’re the much better team on offense and come into this one at relatively full health.
They should have no difficulty putting up runs against Holland and a Pirates bullpen with a collective 5.24 ERA in their home park.
Over/Under (O/U)
Expecting Milwaukee to do the bulk of the run-scoring in this one, go with the OVER 9 (-110). Pittsburgh is 13-11-4 against the O/U on the year, and that’s mostly due to the runs they’re giving up.
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