Lincoln Riley isn’t in uncharted waters: Spencer Rattler is his third quarterback in as many years.
Even through five seasons of elite offensive prowess, the quarterback transition is one hurdle that has proven difficult for Riley and his staff. The table below compares team and quarterback offensive profiles in seasons with first-year starters vs. seasons with returning starters.
Unsurprisingly, quarterback accuracy and efficiency both decrease in seasons featuring first-year starters. The more troubling revelation: Oklahoma’s offensive efficiency takes a hit with a newcomer at the helm.
And keep in mind that all three of Riley’s first-year quarterback’s transferred from another power-five program. That won’t be the case this year.
Ultimately, Oklahoma’s offensive numbers have been stellar either way, but it’s clear that Riley’s offense is not firing on all cylinders without an experienced quarterback at the helm. One reason that may not matter in 2020: Riley’s newest starter might just be the most talented quarterback he’s ever coached.
Spencer Rattler, redshirt freshman and presumed 2020 starting quarterback, is the No. 25 QB prospect in 247Sports’ history. The Phoenix, AZ. native came to Norman as OU’s highest-rated quarterback signee since Rhett Bomar (2004).
But is Rattler’s blue-chip talent enough to maintain last year’s offensive numbers? The chart below lists every underclassmen quarterback season since 2000, highlighting five-star prospects.
It’s clear that five-star prospects performed slightly better overall, but the correlation is fairly weak. That being said, Rattler is more than a five-star prospect.
He was named MVP of the 2018 Elite 11, the nation’s premier high school quarterback competition. Past MVP’s include Justin Fields, Tua Tagovailoa, Jameis Winston and Matt Stafford.
Elite 11 MVP isn’t a guarantee of stardom, but it might be the closest thing there is. Elite 11 MVP’s exhibit a significantly stronger relationship with early-career success than five-star prospects do.
The most impressive thing about the Elite 11 MVP’s: they have a high floor across the board. Not every MVP season was off-the-charts. But more importantly, none of them were terrible.
This bodes well for OU’s offense because the Sooners don’t need a world-beater right off the bat, but they do need a serviceable QB. Based on every past Elite 11 MVP, serviceable is the absolute floor for Rattler.
One key difference for Rattler: he will be the first Elite 11 MVP to play for Lincoln Riley.
Looking at past prospects can give us an idea of how quickly Rattler will come into his own, but we can already reasonably expect his volume stats to fall in line with his predecessors.
In particular, Baker Mayfield’s 2016 season and Kyler Murray’s 2018 season make for good comparisons. Both quarterbacks were coming off a full season working with Riley (two seasons for Murray). It’s no coincidence that the two seasons look nearly identical from a statistical standpoint.
Matching those seasons is perhaps a lofty expectation. After all, both Mayfield and Murray already had starter experience under their belts. Rattler has thrown 11 passes in his career.
Then again, Rattler’s talent ventures into new territory for Riley. And given the current trend of college football, it might not be far-fetched for Rattler to pick up right where Hurts left off. Heisman ceremony and all.
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