The Indiana Pacers meet the Miami Heat for Game 4 of their Eastern Conference first-round series Monday in the Orlando bubble for a 6:30 p.m. ET tip-off. The Heat enter with the 3-0 series lead and try to book their ticket to Round 2. We analyze the Pacers-Heat NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Pacers vs. Heat: Key injuries
Pacers
- PF Domantas Sabonis (foot) out
- SG Jeremy Lamb (knee) out
Heat
- SF Andre Iguodala (hip) questionable
- SF Jae Crowder (knee) questionable
- SF Derrick Jones Jr. (ankle) questionable
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Pacers vs. Heat Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:30 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Heat 114, Pacers 105
Moneyline (ML)
As if the 3-0 series lead didn’t say enough, the Heat (-278) are just too much for the Pacers (+220). Miami has won six of seven meetings this season, covering the spread in five of those wins.
Indiana’s offense isn’t good enough to keep up with Miami and the absence of Sabonis makes the defense not as staunch. The Pacers are well-coached by Nate McMillan, have great depth and there is no reason to think they’d quit in Game 4.
For me, there is not enough value in Pacers (+220) and no way I’m taking the Heat (-278) in a must-win for Indiana. PASS ON THE MONEYLINE.
Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
As much as I like the Pacers and they had a great 2019-20 campaign, the trends point to HEAT -6.5 (-110). Indiana is 0-5-1 against the spread in its last 6 playoff games as an underdog and 0-6-1 ATS in its last 7 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals games.
Miami’s offense really poured on the offense early in Game 3, scoring 74 of its 124 points in the first half, before Indiana erased a 20-point deficit. The Heat ended up winning the fourth-quarter scoring battle and covered the spread but Miami saw what could happen if goes into a lull versus Indiana.
The HEAT -6.5 (-110) is the right play because they’ll take control of a desperate Pacers (+6.5, -110) team that will play outside their comfort zone to keep up with scoring.
New to sports betting? A $110 bet on the Heat -6.5 (-110) returns a $100 profit if Miami beats Indiana by seven or more points.
Over/Under (O/U)
Game 3 broke a four-game streak of Unders between the Pacers and Heat. Like Game 3, I think both teams will come out to start the half lighting it up.
There’s a good chance Miami slows down the pace late in the game dragging the total down but TAKE OVER 217.5 (-110) since it’s a kitchen sink game for the Pacers and the Heat will pick apart a frantic Indiana team.
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