The Ravens are going to miss Earl Thomas more than everybody realizes

He remains an extraordinary talent on the field.

Earl Thomas was kicked out of Baltimore in about the same time it usually takes him to diagnose a play. Just days after getting into it with fellow safety Chuck Clark on the practice field, the Ravens released the Pro Bowl safety for “personal conduct that has adversely affected” the team.

Based on the reports that have followed, the altercation with Clark just added to the list of grievances the team had against the 31-year-old. He had done enough bad to convince Baltimore to eat the $15 million in dead money the move creates, though the team will almost assuredly try to recoup a big chunk of that money by filing a grievance.

And so this very brief, yet wildly successful, era in Baltimore ends with the lasting image being Derrick Henry taking Thomas for a ride during a long run in the Titans’ playoff win over the Ravens back in January.

That embarrassing play has been all over Twitter the past few days, with some fans in Baltimore pointing to it as evidence that losing Thomas is no big deal. Unfortunately for Ravens fans, the meaningful evidence suggests that this defense just lost one of the very best defensive backs in the league. For instance, no safety in the league was better at preventing both targets and completions while in coverage, as ESPN’s Seth Walder showed with this chart he posted to Twitter…

Thomas was really in a league of his own when covering a targeted receiver. According to Next Gen Stats, opposing quarterbacks produced a Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) of -24.9% when targeting Thomas in 2019. That led the league by over three percentage points. According to Sports Info Solutions, plays targeting Thomas resulted in a loss of 12.9 Expected Points, which ranked second among safeties in 2019. His 23.1% allowed success rate ranked first.

As Walder notes in his thread on Thomas, a free safety’s position deep in the middle would naturally lead to fewer targets, inflating some of the numbers mentioned above. But in 2019, Thomas wasn’t parked deep in centerfield every play as he had been in Seattle. After a rough stretch for the Ravens defense to start the season, he started playing closer to the line of scrimmage, which allowed him to make more plays. The positional shift coincided with Baltimore’s defense evolving from a liability to one of the NFL’s best units.

Thomas’ instincts shined in this new role. I don’t have the stats to back this up, but he must have led the league in “crossing routes” jumped …

Per Sports Info Solutions, Baltimore finished fourth in EPA allowed on throws to the middle of the field, which tend to be the most valuable plays in football. Thomas’ presence played a large role in that success.

While Thomas did a lot of his best work in the intermediate area last season, he proved he was still capable of locking down the deep middle when asked to do so…

This play in particular sums up Thomas’ unique ability. Watch him jump the crossing route Baker Mayfield is eyeing before putting pressure on him in the pocket.

Free safeties should not be able to defend a route and get after the quarterback during the same play. Thomas is unreal.

With Ravens defensive coordinator Don “Wink” Martindale leading the league in Cover 0 blitz calls, Thomas was forced to play more man coverage than he had in his NFL career. It wasn’t an issue, as Thomas finished with the Pro Football Focus’ 12th best coverage grade among defensive backs. He even showed some ability to navigate traffic and cover receivers on the perimeter.

As Lamar Jackson said of Thomas during a press conference just days before his release, “That guy … he’s different.”

There isn’t another safety quite like Thomas, so his departure will leave a gaping hole in the Baltimore secondary — and one that won’t be filled with DeShon Elliott or a cornerback convert like some have suggested. And without No. 29 back there, Martindale will almost certainly have to tone down his aggressive play-calling and go with a more conservative approach.

John Harbaugh has been one of the league’s best coaches, and certainly has the right to determine that Thomas’ “detrimental conduct” took more away from the team than his on-field play added. It’s up to him to determine how important locker room harmony is, or to decide when a players’ attitude becomes a distraction, but the team is undoubtedly less talented now. The loss isn’t enough to knock the Ravens out of Super Bowl contention, but it could knock them down a few spots in the NFL’s hierarchy of contenders.

[jwplayer M6Cu7jc2-q2aasYxh]