The Orlando Magic and Milwaukee Bucks meet for Game 3 of their Eastern Conference quarterfinals series Saturday at 1 p.m. ET in the Orlando bubble. We analyze the Magic-Bucks NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Series: Tied 1-1.
Bucks vs. Magic: Key injuries
Bucks
- PF Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) probable
Magic
- C Mo Bamba (COVID evaluation) out
- PG Michael Carter-Williams (foot) doubtful
- PF Aaron Gordon (hamstring) questionable
- PF Jonathan Isaac (knee) out
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Bucks vs. Magic: odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:15 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Bucks 114, Magic 103
Moneyline (ML)
The Bucks (-1000) avenged their Game 1 loss by blowing the doors off the Magic (+640) in the first half of Thursday’s 111-96 win in Game 2. Milwaukee outscored Orlando 64-43, but the Magic did outscore the Bucks in the third and fourth quarters.
While it’s great Orlando stole Game 1, order will be restored and Milwaukee will be in the driver’s seat of this series after Saturday’s game. Orlando is still a below-.500 team and the Bucks were 39-4 in the regular season against losing teams. The Magic are 5-30 against above-.500 teams.
The Bucks have beaten the Magic in eight of their last 10 meetings. No Gordon, or a less than fully healthy Gordon, means Antetokounmpo should put up close to his 29.5-point, 18.5-rebound and 6-assist averages from the first two games. All Milwaukee needs to win is a couple of the role players (looking at you SG Khris Middleton) to knock down a couple of 3’s.
For the record, the implied winning probability for these sides based on their moneylines: Bucks 91% win probability and Magic 14% win probability. I agree with Milwaukee’s probability more than Orlando’s, but the Bucks (–1000) is terrible value. I am PASSING ON THE MONEYLINE.
Also see:
- Milwaukee Bucks rumors (HoopsHype)
- Orlando Magic rumors (HoopsHype)
- HoopsHype – The latest NBA coverage
Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
Along with having an amazing record against losing teams, the Bucks -12 (-110) were great against the spread vs. below-.500 teams in the regular season (23-15 ATS). Same but opposite with the Magic +12 (-110), in that they are bad vs. winning teams ATS (9-18-2).
However, I really like the Magic’s Nikola Vučević vs. the Bucks’ Brook Lopez matchup in favor of Orlando. Vučević is averaging 19.9 points and rebounds per game, while Lopez has 15.9 points and 9.9 rebounds per game when facing each other. The Magic need Vučević to have a good game and a couple of guys hitting 3’s for them to stay in it.
I don’t “like” Orlando’s chances of pulling off an upset, but I do like it to keep it close or “backdoor cover” this big spread. Take the MAGIC +12.
New to sports betting? A $110 bet on the Magic +12 (-110) pays out a $100 profit if Orlando wins or loses by 11 or fewer points.
Over/Under (O/U)
The Under is 5-1-1 in both the last seven Bucks-Magic meetings and Orlando’s last seven games against teams with winning records. The UNDER 222.5 (-110) cashes because Milwaukee’s offense isn’t overly complicated but has the best defense in the league.
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