The Miami Marlins (9-9) open up a five-game series against the rival Washington Nationals (9-12), Friday, at Nationals Park. The first pitch is set for 6:05 p.m. ET. We analyze the Marlins-Nationals betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
Marlins at Nationals: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Elieser Hernandez vs. RHP Patrick Corbin
Hernandez: 0-0, 1.84 ERA, 0.750 WHIP, 19 K, 2 BB, 14 2/3 IP, 3 starts
- Has completed at least 5 full innings in each of his last two starts, but hasn’t thrown more than 82 pitches in a start this season.
- Pitched to a 5.03 ERA through 15 starts and 6 relief appearances last season but has dramatically improved his strikeout, walk and home run rates.
Corbin: 2-1, 3.91 ERA, 1.174 WHIP, 22 K, 4 BB, 23 IP, 4 starts
- Both his strikeout and walk rates are down, but he has allowed 3 home runs in his four starts.
- He pitched to a 2.40 ERA and 8-2 in his first year of having Nationals Park as his home park last season.
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Marlins at Nationals: Key injuries
Get the latest injury news here.
Marlins
- C Jorge Alfaro (COVID-19) out
- 1B Garrett Cooper (COVID-19) out
- 3B Sean Rodriguez (COVID-19) out
- OF Harold Ramirez (COVID-19) out
Nationals
- 2B Starlin Castro (wrist) out
- 2B Howie Kendrick (hamstring) questionable
- RP Sean Doolittle (knee) out
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Marlins at Nationals: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:40 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Marlins 4, Nationals 3
Moneyline (ML)
The MARLINS (+175) sit second in the NL East by win percentage while the Nationals (-200) enter this series tied for fourth. Both teams have had multiple games postponed as results of COVID-19 outbreaks and they’ll now play five times between Friday and Monday with a doubleheader set for Saturday.
Corbin has had a much longer career with a larger sample of elite play to make the defending World Series champs the rightful favorites Friday. Hernandez has made dramatic improvements on his play from last season and most recently held the powerful Atlanta Braves scoreless through five innings.
The MARLINS (+175) have lost five in a row, but with a $10 bet returning a $17.50 profit, they’re well worth the wager in Friday’s series opener.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The MARLINS’ +1.5 (-121) run line also offers an adequate profit margin with a run of insurance in the event of a loss. Miami is 10-8 against the run line in its limited action this season while Washington (-1.5, +100) is 9-12.
The Nats made several offseason moves to improve their bullpen this offseason but they’re currently without a number of relievers, including Doolittle. Even if Corbin outduels the younger Hernandez, the Marlins should be able to close the gap late.
Over/Under (O/U)
Loving Corbin pitching at Nationals Park and believing in Hernandez’s early-season improvements, take the UNDER 9 (-110).
The Nationals are averaging 4.71 runs per game with the Marlins putting up 4.39. Look for both of those totals to drop with the two starting pitchers being leaned on ahead of Saturday’s doubleheader.
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