The key to winning any fantasy football draft is deciding which rookies you should target and which ones you should avoid. Last year, taking players like D.K.Metcalf, A.J. Brown and Deebo Samuel all out-produced their average draft positions (ADP). But players like David Montgomery and N’Keal Harry proved to be busts given their ADPs.
This year, there are a ton of rookies, especially at receiver, who could put up big numbers in their respective offenses. One such player is Henry Ruggs III, who was the first receiver selected in April’s draft. While the reports from training camp have been positive about Ruggs, should you select him in your fantasy drafts?
In a recent article by Sosa Kremenjas of Pro Football Focus, he discussed why it might be a smart decision to pass on Ruggs at his current price. Here is a sample of Kremenjas thoughts on the former Alabama star heading into his rookie season:
Even though Ruggs isn’t the most pro-ready option, there may not be a player with more game-breaking ability from the 2020 draft class. The issue with Ruggs’ current ADP is that it’s slotted ahead of proven and productive veterans such as Golden Tate, Robby Anderson and Sammy Watkins. Ruggs’ current ADP of WR50 lands him nearly in the exact same spot as PFF’s fantasy projections, which rank him as WR51. Expect some hiccups for the rookie, which could ultimately lead to a slow start in the fantasy football world.
While it’s true that Ruggs doesn’t have the experience of a Golden Tate or Sammy Watkins, his upside certainly outweighs his floor. Ruggs could easily be the Raiders’ No. 1 receiver this season and Jon Gruden’s history shows that he feeds his top option a ton of targets.
Considering his current price, Ruggs is a perfect upside pick in the double-digit rounds. Don’t be afraid of picking the speedster as he could easily outperform his draft position by multiple rounds this season.
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