How many games will the Denver Broncos win in the 2020 NFL season? We look at BetMGM‘s projected win total and the Over/Under odds, while looking back at the 2019 season and key offseason roster changes.
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Denver Broncos’ 2019 season
The Broncos transitioned from veteran quarterback Joe Flacco to rookie Drew Lock. After losing their first four contests of 2019, they rallied to finish 7-9 straight up and 9-7 against the spread with a 7-9 Over/Under record.
Denver Broncos’ 2020 offseason changes
The Broncos cut Flacco, giving the team over to Lock to lead. They also lost CB Chris Harris Jr., OL Connor McGovern, S Will Parks and DE Derek Wolfe in free agency.
They added DL Jurell Casey and CB A.J. Bouye in trades, and also signed RB Melvin Gordon, TE Nick Vannett and OL Graham Glasgow. They used their two top draft picks on WRs Jerry Jeudy (Alabama) and K.J. Hamler (Penn State).
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Denver Broncos’ 2020 schedule
Week 1: vs Tennessee Titans
Week 2: at Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 3: vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 4: at New York Jets
Week 5: at New England Patriots
Week 6: vs. Miami Dolphins
Week 7: vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Week 8: BYE
Week 9: at Atlanta Falcons
Week 10: at Las Vegas Raiders
Week 11: vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Week 12: vs. New Orleans Saints
Week 13: at Kansas City Chiefs
Week 14: at Carolina Panthers
Week 15: vs. Buffalo Bills
Week 16: at Los Angeles Chargers
Week 17: vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Denver Broncos’ 2020 win total: Best bet
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Odds last updated Friday, Aug. 7 at 8:25 a.m. ET.
Projected wins: 7.5 / OVER: -139 / UNDER: +115
Denver is excited about what Lock can do in his second year, especially with new receivers and a new running back. Head coach Vic Fangio’s defenses are traditionally good, so they believe they can compete in the AFC West, even though the Chiefs are the heavy favorites.
Their division is competitive but not necessarily difficult outside of the Chiefs. They do have a rough three games to start the season and it is very possible they start the year 0-3. They have three games they should be expected to win over the Dolphins, Panthers and Jets, and they can probably win three games in their division.
Their games against the Falcons, Steelers and Patriots are probably toss-ups right now and the rest are unlikely wins. With three in the division, their floor is probably five wins with a ceiling of eight or nine. Don’t expect them to hit their ceiling, so six or seven wins is the most likely scenario. Take the UNDER 7.5 WINS (+115).
New to sports betting? A $10 wager on the Under will profit $11.50 if the Broncos win fewer than eight games.
Exact season wins: Bands
0-4 wins: +1100
5-8 wins: -223
9-12 wins: +200
13-16 wins: +5000
As explained before, the Broncos’ absolute ceiling is probably nine games. While that bet gets you a little value, the favorite is the most likely scenario. If you want to bet a range, 5-8 WINS (-223) should be a LOCK.
Exact wins: Best bet
The betting favorites for exact wins are seven and eight wins, both at +280. Eight wins is the likely result only if things go extremely well for them in Lock’s first full year under center with a pair of rookie receivers. You get slightly more value with six wins at +375.
Six or seven wins (+280) is where the smart money is, and for me, the BEST BET is 6 WINS (+375).
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