The Calgary Flames will attempt to end the Winnipeg Jets‘ Stanley Cup hopes in an elimination game at Rogers Place in Edmonton Thursday. Puck drop is set for 10:30 p.m. ET. We analyze the Flames-Jets NHL betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Flames vs. Jets: Projected starting goalies
Cam Talbot vs. Connor Hellebuyck
Talbot has been as good as he has needed to be through three games with 73 saves on 79 shots. He hasn’t been tested too much, and it’s yet to be seen how he’d measure up against a proper offensive attack. His career playoff save percentage is up to .922 with a 2.40 goals against average.
Hellebuyck, a Vezina Trophy candidate, is yet to play his best – or usual – hockey through three games. He has allowed 10 goals on 93 shots. He stopped 29 of 30 shots in his only start against the Flames in the regular season, and he’ll need to replicate that performance to keep his team alive in this series.
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Flames vs. Jets: Odds, picks and betting tips
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access them at USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Flames 2, Jets 0
Moneyline (ML)
There hasn’t been much by way of updates on the statuses of Jets Fs Mark Scheifele (leg) and Patrik Laine (wrist) ahead of Game 4. That doesn’t bode well for Winnipeg’s (+150) chances in the win-or-go-home game.
I’m sticking with the FLAMES (-176) despite the steep price for a playoff game. Their two wins in the series have come by an aggregate score of 10-3 while suffering just a 3-2 loss in Game 2.
Puck Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
Get added value on the FLAMES -1.5 (+155) on the alternate puck line. Should they win by two or more goals, a $10 bet will return a profit of $15.50. The same wager on the moneyline would net a profit of $5.00 with the outright win in regulation or overtime.
The Jets (+1, -115) are winning the analytics battle in terms of total shot attempts in the series thus far, but those numbers are skewed by their performance late in games with a multi-goal deficit. The Flames are just a healthier, better-rounded team right now, and they’ll take care of business Thursday.
Over/Under (O/U)
Take the UNDER 5.5 (-125). If the Jets have any chance Thursday night and in the series, it’s with a valiant effort from Hellebuyck. I don’t see him getting the required help from the skaters in front of him, though, and Talbot will shut the door on another relatively easy night.
Esten’s NHL betting record: 12-9
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